NEW YORK, June 18, 2026, 12:59 EDT
- Rigetti stock hovered close to $20 on Thursday. Investors are weighing the latest rise in quantum stocks even as some warn the valuation is outpacing sales.
- The company’s potential U.S. government funding is still linked to a letter of intent for as much as $100 million over three years, not a finalized cash award.
- Rigetti posted $4.4 million in first-quarter revenue and a market cap of around $6.85 billion, so market focus stayed on its ability to deliver later, not on recent earnings.
Rigetti Computing stock traded just under $20 on Thursday. Traders looked at a possible U.S. funding deal and news of a 108-qubit quantum processor but kept focus on the company’s valuation, which remains a sticking point in the industry. Shares edged up 0.9% to $20.44 by midday in New York. That brings Rigetti’s market cap to about $6.85 billion.
Quantum hardware names that have struggled for profits are now policy trades after the White House’s May moves. On May 21, the Commerce Department said it signed letters of intent with nine firms for $2.013 billion in CHIPS and Science Act funds. The federal incentives are meant to build up U.S. chip and advanced tech capacity.
Rigetti is getting more attention, but investors are asking if government support and technical wins are enough for a stock with almost no revenue. Motley Fool’s Anthony Di Pizio wrote Thursday that Rigetti’s high valuation could set up the shares for a drop of 50% or more in the back half of 2026 if sales don’t pick up.
Rigetti said last month it signed a letter of intent with the U.S. Department of Commerce for funding of as much as $100 million over three years to ramp up superconducting quantum computing R&D. The company said the agreement would give the department an equity stake “consistent with the total amount of the funding.”
“Quantum computing will have far reaching impacts on our nation’s national security, economic interests, and overall prosperity,” CEO Subodh Kulkarni said in the company announcement. Kulkarni said the new money would let Rigetti focus on scaling issues and bring utility-scale quantum computing closer.
Traders flipped the script fast. Rigetti and D-Wave Quantum shares faced new selling pressure this week, FX Leaders said, as investors cashed out gains from a funding-driven rally. Eyes are now on whether government cash comes through on clear terms and if the companies can meet key development goals.
Rigetti is betting on its 108-qubit machine, Cepheus-1-108Q, to power its quantum push. The company said a qubit is the core data unit in quantum computing. Rigetti said users can get access to the system on its own cloud or through Amazon Braket. The machine is built from 12 linked chiplets, each with 9 qubits, a modular design the company said can scale by connecting more modules.
Rigetti said its current two-qubit gate fidelity stands at 99.1%. That leaves a 0.9% error rate for quantum operations, a key metric for these systems. The company expects Cepheus-1-108Q to get to 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity by the end of the year. Public filings from Rigetti show the company believes broad quantum advantage would need roughly 1,000 qubits and two-qubit fidelities topping 99.9%.
Rigetti’s financial base is still thin. For the first quarter, the company posted $4.4 million in revenue, an operating loss of $26.0 million, and had $569.0 million in cash, equivalents and available-for-sale investments as of March 31. Non-GAAP net loss came in at $14.7 million, which excludes things like stock-based pay and changes tied to warrants.
The stock is moving more on hopes for federal support, tech milestones and potential contracts than any real profit. Simply Wall St pointed to a popular valuation story putting Rigetti’s fair value at $16 a share—lower than the last close at $20.98. The firm is still posting losses, if with better first-quarter revenue.
Quantum stocks moved together after a Mizuho price-target hike for D-Wave earlier this week. D-Wave traded up 3.7% Thursday. Quantum Computing Inc gained 5.0%. IonQ edged down 0.8%. Rigetti was also in the mix with other quantum names lifted by the Mizuho call.
The risk is the new funding might not speed up the timeline. Rigetti, in its annual filing, said it’s still developing its tech and doesn’t have a scalable business model in place yet. The company said the roadmap might take longer than they expect, or might never happen. Rigetti also warned it could need more capital sooner than planned, which could lead to shareholder dilution.
Rigetti right now is more about waiting than earnings. The sector has more policy support from the government, but investors want evidence—better error rates, paying customers, and revenue that backs up a multibillion-dollar valuation.
