New York, June 25, 2026, 04:20 EDT
- Adjusted mortgage applications were up 1%. The unadjusted index dropped about 10%, as did a credit-pull measure, both falling around Juneteenth.
- Refinance activity was up 3% while buyers pulled back, with purchase applications down as the 30-year conforming mortgage rate edged lower by one basis point to 6.59%.
- Sales of new homes dropped 7.3% in May as supply climbed to 10.3 months.
- Trading had opened early on the NYSE, though the main U.S. equity session hadn’t begun yet at the dateline.
U.S. mortgage numbers are confusing markets. Homeowners remain fast to tap refinancing on any rate pullback, but new buyers are staying on the sidelines, so builders’ inventory is not moving.
Mortgage applications bounced 1.0% last week, per Mortgage Bankers Association data, after dropping 3.8% a week earlier. The uptick was driven by a 3% gain in refinancing, but purchase activity was down. The 30-year fixed conforming rate ticked lower, down to 6.59% from 6.60%.
Mortgage activity cooled off, with HousingWire saying the MBA’s unadjusted index dropped 10% from the previous week. Xactus’ Mortgage Intent Index, which tracks credit-pull activity, lost 10.38% week over week. Thomas Lloyd, Xactus’ chief strategy officer, pinned most of the drop on the Juneteenth holiday and noted that mortgage intent is still weak.
Refinance rates for June 24, according to Fortune’s table using Zillow Group Inc (NASDAQ:Z) data from June 23, had the 30-year fixed at 6.53%, the 20-year at 6.59% and the 15-year fixed at 5.89%. Jumbo 30-year refinance rates came in higher at 7.13%, above the standard conventional rate.
Freddie Mac (OTCMKTS:FMCC) reported its 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.47% for the week of June 18, down from 6.52% the week before and below 6.81% a year ago. The next weekly survey from Freddie Mac posts at noon ET on Thursday.
The Wall Street Journal said the short move lower in rates looked like one more false start for the housing market, as buyers and those trying to refinance got stuck between a fade in geopolitical risks and a Fed still holding off on cuts.
Builders can’t count on new-home sales data. The Census Bureau and HUD said sales of new single-family homes in May dropped 7.3% to a yearly rate of 580,000. Inventory of unsold new homes climbed to 496,000, or 10.3 months’ supply at the current pace. The median price for a new home came in at $424,900.
This is key for D.R. Horton Inc (NYSE:DHI), Lennar Corp (NYSE:LEN), PulteGroup Inc (NYSE:PHM) and Toll Brothers Inc (NYSE:TOL). Orders, margins and incentives at those builders hinge on how quickly homes already for sale move. For Rocket Companies Inc (NYSE:RKT), a mix skewed toward refinancings offers a way to support loan volume if purchase demand falls.
“Mortgage rates were mostly flat last week,” MBA Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni said. That comes even as the Fed sounded more hawkish. Purchase applications slipped, while refinance applications ticked up a bit, he said. South Florida Agent Magazine
Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS, told Reuters there’s “not a lot” in the housing bill for traditional buyers. Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets, said new home demand still looks tepid and the housing rebound could be pushed to 2027. Reuters
Fed holds rates at 3.5%-3.75%, keeps eye on sticky inflation The Fed left the federal funds target at 3.5%-3.75% on June 17, saying inflation is still running hot, with energy costs a factor. For investors, the details matter more than the headline index: a jump driven by refis may benefit mortgage originators and lead sellers first, but it won’t eat into the builders’ 10-month supply unless purchase applications pick up.
