US mortgage rates can fall without a Fed cut, but bond math shows the limits
U.S. mortgage rates can fall without a Federal Reserve cut, but the bond-market route now open would need to deliver more than a routine quarter-point move to reverse the latest drop in homebuying demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s average 30-year contract rate reached 6.65% in the week ended July 10, the highest since August 2025, while purchase applications fell 7.3% to their lowest since February.
