NEW YORK, June 26, 2026, 05:02 (EDT)
- American finished Thursday at $17.57, putting shares 7.3% higher than WSJ’s average analyst target. The stock is still 2.6% under its 52-week high.
- Volume on Thursday hit 203.4 million shares, roughly 2.5 times the 65-day average.
- Nasdaq traded pre-market at the dateline. The regular session opens at 9:30 a.m. ET.
- Fuel moves the needle for American. Jefferies said a 5% fall in fuel prices could boost the airline’s EPS by up to 50%.
American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:AAL) traded above where Wall Street analysts had pegged it, before its fuel savings even hit results. Shares ended Thursday at $17.57, up 0.75%, after hitting a 52-week high of $18.04. Analysts’ average target sits at $16.38, with the median at $16.00, according to WSJ. Trading volume surged to 203.4 million shares—about two and a half times the 65-day average of 80.0 million. In pre-market action at 5:01 a.m. EDT, the stock eased 0.4% to $17.50.
Nasdaq stocks were trading in the pre-market session at the dateline. Pre-market hours on the exchange run from 4:00 a.m. to 9:30 a.m. Eastern, with regular trading from 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. Eastern. Nasdaq’s posted 2026 holiday calendar lists July 3 as the next full U.S. equity market close for Independence Day observed, not June 26.
American’s new stock high isn’t the whole story. The gap to price targets catches the eye. After Thursday’s close, shares finished 7.3% above the average analyst target and 9.8% above the median, according to WSJ data. The market’s already priced in a chunk of the fuel-relief move.
Oil prices slipped early Friday as Brent crude lost about 2% to $73.76 and U.S. West Texas Intermediate traded at $70.43. More tanker traffic started moving again through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Reuters. The declines followed news that a cargo ship had been struck near Oman.
Airline stocks rallied Wednesday as crude erased its run-up since the Iran war, with the S&P 500 Passenger Airlines Index reaching a record and climbing almost 13% from the June 12 close, Reuters said. American Airlines jumped around 7%, topping gains for Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE:DAL), United Airlines Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:UAL), and Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE:LUV). Jet fuel, which had topped $170 a barrel, dropped to an average $119.17 for the week ending June 19. Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens said swings in fuel prices hit airline “profitability” since tickets were sold when fuel was more expensive. Reuters
American’s small earnings base means changes in fuel costs have a bigger impact. Jefferies figures a 5% cut in their fuel-cost call for 2027, about $3 a gallon, would boost projected EPS by 10%-15% for Delta, Southwest and United. For American, it’s up to 50%. Conor Cunningham at Melius Research said it all comes down to “whether airlines can ‘hold price.’” Reuters
American said its total debt stood at $34.7 billion at the end of the first quarter, the company’s lowest since mid-2015. That’s still a big number for shareholders. Revenue for the quarter hit a record $13.9 billion. GAAP net loss was $382 million. The airline put out second-quarter adjusted EPS guidance between a loss of 20 cents and a profit of 20 cents. “Demand for our product is growing,” CEO Robert Isom said. He added the company was “on track for another record” in the second quarter. American Airlines Newsroom
American Airlines CEO Isom said in late May the company would stick to its full-year outlook, even with fuel costs seen jumping by $4 billion to $5 billion this year. He told investors corporate travel was up 13% from last year. American is forecasting second-quarter revenue to climb 15% with capacity set to grow around 5%. Reuters reported American has lagged Delta and United on profit for years.
Barclays (LON:BARC) bumped its price target on American to $19 from $16, holding an Equal Weight rating. The analysts said airlines might raise third-quarter unit revenue guidance and get a better 2027 margin picture if energy prices drop further.
The setup is still tight. The $19 target is just 8.1% over Thursday’s close. WSJ says the average target right now is under the current share price. American’s next main test comes with the Q2 report July 16. WSJ data has the current EPS consensus at a $0.01 loss for Q2 and $0.08 loss for Q3.
