NEW YORK, June 28, 2026, 09:02 EDT
- American Airlines gained 11.8% last week as the S&P 500 dropped 2%, breaking from the wider market move.
- The stock finished Friday at $17.87, just under its 52-week high of $18.04, with roughly 163 million shares traded.
- Fuel is front and center for investors. Argus listed the U.S. jet-fuel index at $2.80 a gallon as of June 26. That’s still far under American’s Q2 planning price of around $4.00 a gallon from April.
American Airlines Group Inc. NASDAQ:AAL comes into Monday up, but the move doesn’t just track oil. It’s more about whether fuel prices have shifted quickly enough to alter AAL’s earnings picture.
The stock ended Friday at $17.87, up 1.71%. Trading volume was heavy at 163.0 million shares, almost double the 65-day average of 81.7 million. It hit a 52-week high of $18.04 on Thursday, so Friday’s close finished less than 1% below that level.
AAL finished the week up from $15.99 on June 18 to $17.87 on June 26, with nearly all of that move happening Wednesday when shares jumped 8.05%. U.S. Global Jets ETF (NYSEARCA:JETS) also gained for the week, up to $33.28 from $31.00, but American outperformed the sector fund by roughly 4.4 percentage points.
American’s April guidance assumed fuel at $4.00 a gallon, but the Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index was down at $2.80 a gallon on Friday. The company’s outlook for second-quarter adjusted EPS ranges from a loss of 20 cents to a 20 cent profit. Spot fuel and airlines’ full fuel costs are not the same, but investors are watching the drop.
Airline profits can shift against fuel price swings, since most tickets are sold before sudden changes, Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens told Reuters last week. “Sudden movements in fuel prices” can move airline profitability “in the opposite direction of the fuel price,” Owens said. Reuters
Wall Street found a little space as oil fell back to pre-Iran war prices, with most U.S. stocks up Friday. The Associated Press reported AI stocks stayed under pressure, and the S&P 500 still posted a 2% weekly drop while the Nasdaq sank 4.6%.
Analyst calls were mixed. Citi’s John Godyn lifted his American Airlines target to $22 from $14 and stuck with a Buy. Citi said in a note it sees most airlines topping Q2 and giving Q3 guidance ahead of the Street, but also flagged that recent gains in shares already factored in a lot of that optimism.
The average price target for AAL is $16.90, Google Finance data showed, coming in 5.4% under Friday’s closing price. Citi put its target up at $22. UBS was at $21. Barclays gave a $19 target. Jefferies, $16.
American Airlines (AAL) keeps its rally moving with bullish comments in April. CEO Robert Isom said the airline is “on track for another record in the second quarter,” and American forecast Q2 revenue will rise 13.5% to 16.5%. The release also showed total debt at $34.7 billion and a first-quarter adjusted loss of $267 million, so lower fuel prices matter more for American than for airlines with less debt. American Airlines Newsroom
Jet fuel prices on the U.S. Gulf Coast fell last week. FRED data, based on the EIA, showed prices at $2.839 a gallon for the week ended June 19. That’s lower than $3.185 the prior week and $4.113 for May 22. Another update is set for July 1.
AAL needs to stick near $18 if the fuel-reset trade is going to last, with no new numbers from the company. If AAL trades above $18.04, it clears last week’s 52-week high. If jet fuel prices bounce, the $16.90 average target could matter again.
