NEW YORK, July 2, 2026, 06:01 EDT
- Nasdaq 100 futures were lagging Dow and Russell 2000 futures by about 40 basis points at 5:48 a.m. EDT, as weakness in tech stocks held back the move.
- June’s jobs report is due at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists polled by Reuters expect 110,000 new jobs and unemployment at 4.3%.
- U.S. markets open on Thursday. Trading will be closed Friday, July 3, for the Independence Day holiday.
- Semiconductor stocks kept falling. The U.S. chip index lost 6.3% Wednesday, and South Korea’s KOSPI slipped 7.8% Thursday.
U.S. stock-index futures pointed to a mixed start Thursday. Dow and Russell 2000 futures edged up in early New York trading, but Nasdaq 100 futures slipped. Traders are watching for a jobs report that could shift rate hike bets ahead of a three-day break. Nasdaq’s premarket goes from 4:00 a.m. to 9:30 a.m. ET, and the regular session opens at 9:30 a.m. and ends at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Traders didn’t focus on the S&P 500. The real action was in the splits underneath it. By about 5:48 a.m. EDT, Nasdaq 100 futures were off 0.35% while Russell 2000 futures ticked up 0.06%. Dow futures were slightly higher, gaining 0.04%. That left Nasdaq 100 futures 41 basis points below the Russell 2000 and 39 points under the Dow.
| U.S. futures snapshot | Last | Change | % change | Time shown |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Sep 26 | 52,687.00 | +19.00 | +0.04% | 05:48:24 |
| S&P 500 Sep 26 | 7,538.75 | -4.75 | -0.06% | 05:48:33 |
| Nasdaq 100 Sep 26 | 29,990.25 | -104.00 | -0.35% | 05:48:51 |
| Russell 2000 Sep 26 | 3,036.90 | +1.80 | +0.06% | 05:48:10 |
Why it matters: Traders are looking beyond payrolls today. The focus is on whether AI leaders can take another losing day after last quarter’s big rally. The Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 6.3% Wednesday, trimming part of its 87% second-quarter jump. In South Korea, the KOSPI slid 7.8% Thursday, dragged by SK Hynix KRX:000660 slumping 14% and Samsung Electronics KRX:005930 dropping 9%. “A hangover from Wall Street,” said IG market analyst Fabien Yip. Reuters
Markets will get the June jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET, when the Employment Situation drops on the Bureau of Labor Statistics calendar. U.S. trading will shut the day after for July 3 Independence Day.
Economists polled by Reuters expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 110,000 after 172,000 in May. Forecasts range widely, with calls from 25,000 up to 200,000. Any quick reaction in markets could be jumpy since estimates are scattered. The jobless rate is projected to stay at 4.3% for the fourth month in a row.
JPMorgan’s trading desk laid out its scenarios for the data release. The team gave 40% odds to a payrolls gain of 100,000 to 130,000 and said that could send the S&P 500 up between 0.5% and 1%. They put a 25% probability on payrolls coming in at 70,000 to 100,000, which they said might drag the S&P 500 down 0.5% to 1.25%.
| June payrolls outcome | JPMorgan probability | S&P 500 reaction map |
|---|---|---|
| 100,000–130,000 jobs | 40% | Up between 0.5% and 1% |
| 70,000–100,000 jobs | 25% | Down 0.5%–1.25% |
| Under 70,000 jobs | 5% | Down 1.25% to 2% |
| More than 160,000 jobs | 5% | -0.5% to +1.5% |
World Cup hiring is giving the jobs numbers a lift, according to Goldman Sachs. The bank’s economists say the tournament could add around 40,000 payroll jobs to June’s U.S. report, with most gains showing up in leisure and hospitality, retail, and transport. They’re looking for a pullback after the short-term jobs fade.
Dan North at Allianz Trade Americas told Reuters the jobs market is stuck in a “no hire, no fire” phase. James Knightley at ING said the string of strong jobs numbers “could come to an end at any point.” Shruti Mishra at Bank of America Securities said she hasn’t seen signs of “downside labor risks.” Reuters
Fed holds rates steady. The central bank left its target range at 3.50%-3.75% on June 17, saying inflation is still above 2%. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on Wednesday said he’s not moving off the 2% inflation goal and told markets to expect no relief for now. “Disappoint” was his word for those looking for easier policy. Federal Reserve
Strong jobs data could weigh on growth stocks with heavy duration exposure. LSEG data cited by Reuters shows markets still see a decent chance of another rate hike this year. Julien Lafargue, chief market strategist at Barclays Private Bank, said traders may look to the June CPI report set for July 14, as inflation numbers could give a clearer view.
SanDisk NASDAQ:SNDK fell 2.6% in premarket trading. Arm Holdings NASDAQ:ARM was off 2.1%. Shares of Bending Spoons NASDAQ:BSP slipped 3.1% after jumping 40% in their Nasdaq debut.
Meta Platforms NASDAQ:META was in the AI cloud news again Wednesday after Reuters reported, citing Bloomberg News, that the company is putting together a cloud division to offer its surplus AI compute. CoreWeave NASDAQ:CRWV shares sank 10.8% and Nebius NASDAQ:NBIS fell 12.4% on worries Meta could trim its spending with outside AI cloud firms. D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria told Reuters that Meta “may not need them anymore.” Reuters
