NIO shares fell. The company posted record June deliveries, but the stronger numbers make its revenue guidance math look tighter.
- NIO ADRs finished at $4.79, off 3.62%. The company hit a record for June deliveries but still fell short of its Q2 unit guidance.
- The unit gap isn’t big, but it matters for the model. For Q2, NIO needs about the same revenue per delivery as Q1 to reach the bottom of its revenue target.
- NIO topped XPeng and Li Auto in June deliveries, but it was the only one of the China EV trio to miss its guidance.
- NYSE says U.S. equity markets will be closed Friday, July 3, for the Independence Day holiday.
NIO Inc. NYSE:NIO slipped Thursday. Shares lost 3.62% to $4.79 after the EV maker turned in its best delivery month this year, but investors looked past that to the numbers behind the quarter. Around 35.2 million shares traded, close to the 50-day average. The Dow added 1.14%; the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.80%.
The New York Stock Exchange is closed Friday, July 3, for the Independence Day holiday. That makes Thursday’s session the last regular trading day for U.S. markets before the long weekend.
NIO handed over 40,597 cars in June, a 62.9% jump from last year. That brought second-quarter deliveries to 107,658, up 49.4%, but still short of the 110,000 to 115,000 range NIO guided to in May.
NIO missed the low end by 2,342 vehicles. For the stock, the bigger worry is a higher bar for revenue per delivery. The company had guided Q2 revenue to between RMB32.777 billion and RMB34.436 billion. At 107,658 actual deliveries, NIO now needs about RMB304,500 in total revenue per delivery to hit the low end of guidance, right near last quarter’s RMB305,900.
| Metric | Company guide / reported data | Investor read-through |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 delivery guide | 110,000-115,000 vehicles | May baseline from company |
| Q2 actual deliveries | 107,658 vehicles | 2.1% short of low end |
| Q2 revenue guide | RMB32.777 bln-RMB34.436 bln | Open until results post |
| Implied revenue per delivery at low guide | RMB297,973 | Math with guided range before miss |
| Revenue per delivery needed after actual units | RMB304,456 | 2.2% over low-end implied |
| Q1 actual revenue per delivery | about RMB305,900 | NIO needs to hit this number now |
This is why the stock reaction is in focus. A monthly record didn’t cut it, as the quarter now hinges more on product mix, other lines, and margin, not just unit volume. In May, CEO William Bin Li said NIO had “entered an intensive new product launch and delivery cycle.” CFO Stanley Yu Qu reported Q1 vehicle margin at 18.8%, rising for the fourth consecutive quarter. NIO Inc.
NIO’s main brand was 54% of June volume at 21,908 vehicles, so it wasn’t all premium. ONVO turned in 11,743 and FIREFLY 6,946 for the month, combining for about 46% of the total. ONVO fell from May, but FIREFLY was up 23%.
| NIO brand split | May deliveries | June deliveries | Month-on-month change | Share of June total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIO brand | 20,013 | 21,908 | up 9.5% | 54.0% |
| ONVO | 12,029 | 11,743 | down 2.4% | 28.9% |
| FIREFLY | 5,663 | 6,946 | up 22.7% | 17.1% |
| Total | 37,705 | 40,597 | up 7.7% | 100% |
Deutsche Bank analyst Wang Bin’s team said the miss mostly came from weaker ES8 SUV deliveries, according to CnEVPost. Some buyers seemed to hold back for the five-seat ES8, which opened presales June 28. The analysts still see NIO reaching non-GAAP break-even in the second quarter, helped by the ES9 and an estimated 18% gross margin.
NIO had a solid volume screen, but its guidance screen came up short against U.S.-listed Chinese EV names. XPeng Inc. NYSE:XPEV reported 40,126 deliveries in June and 103,295 for Q2, landing inside its 100,000-to-106,000 outlook. Li Auto Inc. NASDAQ:LI posted 30,895 for June and 98,330 for the quarter, in line with its 95,000-to-100,000 range.
| Company | June deliveries | Q2 deliveries | Q2 guide result |
|---|---|---|---|
| NIO NYSE:NIO | 40,597 | 107,658 | Came in below 110,000-115,000 |
| XPeng NYSE:XPEV | 40,126 | 103,295 | Hit 100,000-106,000 range |
| Li Auto NASDAQ:LI | 30,895 | 98,330 | Landed in 95,000-100,000 band |
China EV stocks left investors cautious about mix. Tesla Inc. NASDAQ:TSLA June sales for China-made cars totaled 89,091, up 24.4%. BYD Co. SHE:002594 posted global BEV deliveries of 557,090 for Q2, Reuters said.
BYD’s total sales in June climbed 5.5% to 403,472 vehicles, pushed by a 94.7% jump in exports. The China Passenger Car Association expects China car sales to drop 11% this year, Reuters said. That sets up NIO’s next challenge around pricing and model mix rather than just another monthly delivery count.
