NEW YORK, July 3, 2026, 16:01 EDT
- U.S. equity and options markets were shut Friday for Independence Day observed, leaving Robinhood at Thursday’s $112.73 close.
- Robinhood’s June data imply event contracts ran 65% above May’s daily pace through June 25.
- Mizuho’s $130 target leaves about 15% upside after a four-session stock jump.
- Q2 results on July 29 must show if volume gains fed revenue.
Robinhood Markets, Inc. NASDAQ:HOOD entered the long U.S. holiday weekend with a market value of about $103 billion and a June operating mix that points less to meme-era equity trading and more to prediction markets. Nasdaq’s 2026 calendar lists July 3 as shut for Independence Day observed and June 19 as shut for Juneteenth. Robinhood last closed at $112.73 on Thursday, up 3.76% on 41.2 million shares.
The stock rose 14.2% from its June 26 close through Thursday. Its volume on Thursday was about 31% above the 65-day average, even after shares finished 6.1% below the session high of $120.05.
The sharper number sits inside Robinhood’s own June data. The company’s releases imply 2.1 billion event contracts from June 19 through June 25, equal to about 40% of the June 1-25 total. That line grew faster than equities, options or crypto in the same disclosed window.
Robinhood had already topped May’s full-month total in each disclosed activity line by June 25. The equity and options daily rates below use 18 U.S. trading days through June 25. Crypto and event-contract rates use 25 calendar days. Company figures are preliminary and unaudited.
| Activity line | May full month | June 1-25 | Implied June daily pace | Vs May daily pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity notional | $315.3 bln | ~$343 bln | ~$19.1 bln | +21% |
| Options contracts | 231.1 mln | ~274 mln | ~15.2 mln | +31% |
| Crypto notional | $12.2 bln | ~$14 bln | ~$560 mln | +42% |
| Event contracts | 3.9 bln | ~5.2 bln | ~208 mln | +65% |
That matters because the stock’s valuation is leaning on newer product lines as much as old brokerage volumes. Equity and options activity still carry the core brokerage story. But the fastest June pace came from event contracts, a newer business where investors still need proof that volume can turn into durable revenue.
Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev raised his Robinhood target to $130 from $115 and kept an Outperform rating on July 2. Deutsche Bank raised its target to $113 from $105 and kept a buy rating on July 1, while MarketBeat’s analyst tally showed a $114.35 consensus target. At Thursday’s close, Mizuho’s target left about 15.3% upside. Deutsche’s target sat 27 cents above the close.
Mizuho’s note said Robinhood could become the first global “hyperscaler” of online brokerages, according to Investing.com. The bar is high. Robinhood is now worth more than twice Coinbase Global, Inc. NASDAQ:COIN and Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. NASDAQ:IBKR, but still about 61% of Charles Schwab Corporation NYSE:SCHW. Investing.com India
| Company | Last price | Market value | P/E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robinhood Markets, Inc. NASDAQ:HOOD | $112.73 | $103.2 bln | 54.7 |
| Coinbase Global, Inc. NASDAQ:COIN | $165.48 | $43.8 bln | 60.8 |
| Charles Schwab Corporation NYSE:SCHW | $97.00 | $169.9 bln | 19.3 |
| Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. NASDAQ:IBKR | $91.33 | $40.9 bln | 39.2 |
Robinhood on July 1 said its Robinhood Chain mainnet was live, Stock Tokens were available in Robinhood Wallet in more than 120 countries, and crypto agentic accounts would roll out to eligible U.S. traders. The company said Stock Tokens are tokenized debt securities that give economic exposure, but no legal or beneficial rights in the underlying securities.
Johann Kerbrat, Robinhood’s senior vice president and general manager for crypto and international, said decentralized finance had required “technical expertise to navigate.” Chief Executive Vlad Tenev told CNBC the idea behind agentic trading is that “every capability a human can do will be available to an AI agent.” Robinhood
Last week, Robinhood closed $2.2 billion of 0.00% convertible senior notes due 2029, used about $290 million to repurchase shares and spent $123.2 million on capped calls. Chief Financial Officer Shiv Verma said the deal gives Robinhood “strategic flexibility to invest for future growth.” Robinhood Markets, Inc.
The next scheduled company test is July 29 after the close, when Robinhood says it will release second-quarter results and full June operating data. Tenev and Verma are due on a 5 p.m. ET video call. The shareholder Q&A window opens July 22 and closes July 28.
