BENGALURU, July 6, 2026, 15:33 (IST)
- Spot gold slipped 0.2% to $4,165.21 per ounce, backing off from its highest mark since June 22. August U.S. gold futures ended up 1.3%.
- After June payrolls increased by 57,000, traders put the odds of a Fed rate hike in September at 56%.
- JPMorgan put out a third-quarter gold target of $4,300, implying about 3.2% upside from spot on Monday. Platinum is trading even further below the bank’s year-end forecast.
- Central banks added a net 41 tonnes of gold to reserves in May, with Poland and China leading, World Gold Council figures showed.
Gold has bounced back from dropping under $4,000 in June, but traders say there’s not much room to run. Spot gold fell on Monday as a stronger dollar weighed, though it stuck close to a two-week high after soft U.S. jobs numbers dimmed the odds of an interest rate hike. COMEX gold futures saw solid trading during the Bengaluru session, while U.S. ETF action was waiting for the NYSE to open at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Watch the spread between spot prices and the latest bank calls. On Reuters’ 0750 GMT spot check, platinum prices look to have more “catch-up” left compared with gold or silver, going by JPMorgan Chase & Co’s NYSE:JPM new precious-metals targets. Reuters
| Metal | Monday spot | JPMorgan yardstick | Implied room |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $4,165.21/oz | $4,300 Q3 / $4,500 Q4 | up 3.2% / up 8.0% |
| Silver | $62.28/oz | $60-$65 average | down 3.7% to up 4.4% |
| Platinum | $1,649.61/oz | $1,800 end-2026 | up 9.1% |
| Palladium | $1,288.14/oz | $1,350 end-2026 | up 4.8% |
This is relevant for anyone in SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD) and iShares Silver Trust (NYSEARCA:SLV). Gold has pretty much recovered what it lost, so now the market is waiting for either easier rate talk or a pickup in real-world buying. Silver is about halfway through JPMorgan’s $60-$65 band, so by their call, it’s not the undervalued outlier anymore.
“Gold is still seeing pressure from a strong U.S. dollar,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade. Waterer said traders would watch Fed minutes this week for any hint more officials agree with Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish stance. Reuters
Gold got an early lift after payrolls data landed. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported nonfarm payrolls climbed by 57,000 in June, and April plus May payrolls were revised down by 74,000 in total. Labor force participation slipped to 61.5%. Average hourly earnings moved up 3.5% year over year. That read is weak enough to trim rate hike odds, but still leaves inflation on the table.
| Rate and metal check | Before jobs data | Friday | Monday |
|---|---|---|---|
| September Fed hike odds | 66% | 54% | 56% |
| Spot gold | — | $4,174.21 | $4,165.21 |
| Spot silver | — | $62.19 | $62.28 |
Gold futures moved higher after soft jobs numbers and falling oil prices cooled bets on more Fed rate hikes, The Wall Street Journal said. The piece also quoted Saxo Bank analysts, who noted yields on short-term U.S. bonds still suggest there’s a chance for another hike later this year.
Physical demand helped balance things out. Marissa Salim, senior research lead for APAC at the World Gold Council, said central banks “were back in buying mode in May.” Net official reserves climbed by 41 tonnes that month, with Poland adding 18 tonnes and China taking in 10 tonnes. World Gold Council
JPMorgan turned cautious on gold. The bank now sees weaker demand from major sectors and put gold at $4,300 for Q3 and $4,500 for Q4. That’s a shift from June 9, when Reuters said the bank was calling for gold to hit $6,000 by year-end.
The gold-silver ratio was near 66.9 using Reuters spot prices on Monday. That means silver is now within JPMorgan’s projection range instead of lagging it. For investors, if the goal is to split Fed-driven moves from metals trades, the outlook is clear: gold still wants a drop in rate hike odds; platinum’s price is further from big-bank targets; silver has already closed the gap.
The next test is listed. According to the Fed calendar, minutes from the June 16-17 meeting drop July 8. The following FOMC meeting comes July 28-29.
Related articles: NYSE:JPM
