New York, July 8, 2026, 10:01 (EDT)
- Palantir fell 4.3% to $128.65 in morning trading in New York, while Nvidia added 1.2% to $199.32.
- Morningstar put Palantir at 24% under fair value as of June 30, but with the price moving up, that gap is now around 16%.
- Palantir and Nvidia are pitching their joint product to U.S. government and critical infrastructure clients, but haven’t said how much the deal could be worth.
Palantir Technologies NASDAQ:PLTR is seeing less talk about being “too cheap” after the stock fell. Now, questions are more about if its fresh Nvidia Corp NASDAQ:NVDA partnership can move government revenue up fast enough to support the stock’s high multiple.
Morningstar Inc NASDAQ:MORN analyst Mark Giarelli said Wednesday that Palantir closed June 30 “trading 24% below” Morningstar’s fair value estimate. “We see opportunity in the pullback,” Giarelli wrote. Morningstar kept its $153 fair value estimate, kept its narrow moat rating and left its very high uncertainty rating unchanged. Morningstar
Palantir closed at $128.65, valuing the company around $330.7 billion. Shares now trade at roughly 43 times the midpoint of Palantir’s revenue outlook for 2026, which is $7.65 billion to $7.66 billion. The stock is down more than 40% off its high for 2025.
| Live market check | Palantir | Nvidia |
|---|---|---|
| Recent price | $128.65 | $199.32 |
| Day move | down 4.3% | up 1.2% |
| Market value | $330.7 billion | $4.86 trillion |
| P/E ratio | 144.6 | 30.3 |
A part of the Nvidia angle that gets less attention is its focus on Palantir’s bigger, slower group. Government revenue hit $858.4 million in Q1, rising 76%, while commercial brought in $774.2 million, up 95%. U.S. government sales were $687 million, just $92 million above U.S. commercial, which had a higher growth rate.
| Palantir revenue line | Q1 2026 | Growth vs Q1 2025 | Added revenue vs Q1 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Government | $858.4 million | 76% | $371.4 million |
| Commercial | $774.2 million | 95% | $377.3 million |
| U.S. government | $687 million | 84% | $314 million |
| U.S. commercial | $595 million | 133% | $340 million |
The Nvidia deal matters for that reason. Nvidia trades at about 120 times the U.S. government revenue from its first quarter on an annualized basis. If the company can turn sensitive, air-gapped AI projects into steady software sales, it could ease that valuation. If the deal is mostly just a tech announcement, investors will keep focusing on Nvidia’s commercial business and margins.
Palantir and Nvidia said June 29 they have built a new engine for running Nvidia AI and Nemotron open models inside sovereign systems. The launch targets government agencies and critical infrastructure in the U.S. Both firms said the tool handles isolation and auditing built out for specific clients, plus it can be deployed in classified or air-gapped spots. Palantir CEO Alex Karp said the product should “remove the underlying security risks.” Nvidia chief Jensen Huang said open-source AI is “foundational to national security.” Business Wire
Palantir told investors its government business is tied to contract timing, U.S. budget decisions and changes in spending priorities. In its latest 10-Q, Palantir said most of its revenue comes from government contracts. Cuts to federal budgets, award delays or program changes could reduce revenue ahead.
James Foord on Seeking Alpha said Tuesday he’s bullish on Palantir, rating it a “Strong Buy” and writing that government business could hit an annual run rate of $6 billion to $7 billion in the next two years. He said he’s long both Palantir and Nvidia. Seeking Alpha
Palantir’s commercial business kept going. The company said Tuesday that GNP Seguros is its first named commercial client in Latin America. GNP is using Foundry and AIP for claims fraud, underwriting and risk data. Palantir did not disclose how much the deal is worth.
Palantir put out second-quarter revenue guidance of $1.797 billion to $1.801 billion. The key question is if the $92 million advantage for U.S. government revenue over U.S. commercial sticks, grows, or fades.
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