NEW YORK, July 13, 2026, 17:13 (EDT)
Palantir Technologies NASDAQ:PLTR said after Monday’s U.S. market close that it will report second-quarter results on Aug. 3, also after the close, putting a firm date on the next test of its premium artificial-intelligence valuation. The shares finished 2.6% higher at $130.04 while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.55%, an outperformance of about 4.1 percentage points.
The timing matters because Sunday’s case for a $400 billion market value is less a distant destination than a near-term stress test. One market-data feed valued Palantir at $334.3 billion, only 19.6% below that threshold. The Motley Fool page displayed $304 billion because it counts publicly traded shares only, while Palantir’s filing showed 2.397 billion shares across all classes at March 31 and a 2.571 billion diluted weighted-average count for the first quarter. The basic share count rose about 0.25% during the quarter.
| Valuation basis | Equity value at Monday’s price | Gap to $400 billion | Approximate price at $400 billion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Publicly traded shares only, as displayed by Fool | $304.0 billion | 31.6% | $171.10 |
| March 31 basic shares across all classes | $311.7 billion | 28.3% | $166.87 |
| Market-data figure, matching the Q1 diluted EPS count mathematically | $334.3 billion | 19.6% | $155.59 |
The range is not bookkeeping trivia. It means the same $400 billion headline can imply roughly 20% to 32% upside and an $11.28 difference in the per-share target between the basic and diluted Q1 calculations. The diluted earnings-per-share, or EPS, count includes options and stock awards when they would reduce profit per share; it is a quarterly average, not a fixed current share total. Any further issuance would move the target price again.
Operating results set a similarly demanding bar. Palantir guided to a second-quarter revenue midpoint of $1.799 billion and adjusted operating profit of $1.065 billion, implying a 59.2% margin. Adjusted profit excludes stock-based pay and related payroll taxes. The revenue midpoint would be about 79% above the $1.004 billion reported a year earlier, while Barchart’s linked analysis cited a diluted EPS estimate of $0.28, up from $0.13. Chief Executive Alex Karp said after the first quarter that Palantir’s “Rule of 40 score has soared to 145%.” The Rule of 40 adds revenue growth and adjusted operating margin, with 40% commonly used as a strong software-industry benchmark. SEC
| 2026 revenue checkpoint | Amount | Implied comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 actual | $1.633 billion | — |
| Q2 guidance midpoint | $1.799 billion | 10.2% above Q1 |
| Implied first-half total | $3.432 billion | 44.8% of full-year midpoint |
| Revenue required in Q3 and Q4 | $4.224 billion | 55.2% of full-year midpoint |
| Required average per Q3/Q4 quarter | $2.112 billion | 17.4% above Q2 midpoint |
| Full-year guidance midpoint | $7.656 billion | About 71% year-on-year growth |
The hidden hurdle is in the second half. Palantir could meet its second-quarter guidance and still need $4.224 billion of revenue over the following two quarters, or an average of $2.112 billion each. At the displayed market value, investors are paying about $43.70 for each dollar of Palantir’s forecast 2026 revenue. That leaves the shares sensitive not only to a miss, but to any indication that growth is settling sooner than expected.
The premium is visible against relevant enterprise-software peers. Snowflake NYSE:SNOW ended Monday with a market value of $92.8 billion and ServiceNow NYSE:NOW with $115.7 billion. Palantir’s displayed value was about 60% larger than the two combined. Its trailing price-to-earnings ratio — the price paid for each dollar of past-year profit — was about 146, versus roughly 65 for ServiceNow; Snowflake remained loss-making, making its ratio not meaningful. Their products differ, but the companies overlap in enterprise spending on data, AI and automated workflows.
Supporters argue that Palantir is structurally different. D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria upgraded the shares to Buy and raised his target to $175 on July 2, about 35% above Monday’s close. Luria wrote that Palantir had “a number of advantages over all other software companies in the artificial-intelligence era,” focusing on its ability to help enterprises deploy and govern different AI models rather than depend on one model provider. Yahoo Finance
The chart-based case is narrower. Trefis placed the shares inside a $122.59-to-$135.49 support zone — a price range where buyers previously stopped declines — and said the past three defenses produced an average peak rebound of 35%. Monday’s close was near the upper end of that band. Those historical bounces do not determine fundamental value, but they increase the likelihood that the Aug. 3 release will decide whether the recent recovery extends or fails.
But the risks are measurable. First-quarter stock-based compensation, pay delivered through shares and awards, rose 30% to $201.6 million, equal to 12.3% of revenue. Excluding that expense and related payroll taxes lifted operating profit to $983.5 million from the $754 million reported under U.S. accounting rules. Jefferies analyst Brent Thill said the stock “requires a heroic durability assumption to justify the current multiple.” If second-quarter revenue lands near the bottom of guidance, the third-quarter forecast softens, or management does not lift its full-year outlook, a lower valuation multiple could outweigh otherwise strong growth. SEC
That makes Aug. 3 more than an EPS event. The decisive figures will be revenue against the $1.799 billion midpoint, the third-quarter forecast, any change to the full-year outlook and the diluted share count. The $400 billion threshold may be close on some market screens; the harder question is whether per-share growth can outrun dilution and a valuation already discounting much of the expected 2026 expansion.
Related articles: NASDAQ:PLTR
