New York, July 15, 2026, 13:07 EDT
MARA Holdings dropped about 3.1% to $11.79 on Wednesday afternoon, falling under the $12.02 close seen right before its July 9 Texas site news. That comes even as bitcoin gained 0.7% to around $65,070. Shares gave up the brief premium tied to the project, which could bring 2 gigawatts of capacity but won’t be at full power until 2028.
MARA shares ended July 9 at $13.22, up 10%. That move boosted equity value by about $458 million using the company’s most recent share count of 381.3 million. The single-day gain amounts to about 76% of the Texas deal’s $600 million maximum milestone payout. Shares were down 10.9% from that close by 1 p.m. Wednesday.
Texas economics are part of the reason for caution here. MARA’s filing shows it can pay as much as $600 million—$300,000 per megawatt—if the 2,000 megawatt project hits land, regulatory, power and tenant goals. The project company owns one piece of land, has deals to buy more, and holds utility rights for 2,000 megawatts. No word on construction costs in the filing. Power isn’t revenue until there’s a tenant.
A second deal adds to the overall capital needed. Combined, the Texas max and the Long Ridge deal come to as much as $2.1 billion on paper—roughly 47% of MARA’s $4.47 billion market cap. But the Long Ridge number includes assumed debt, and the Texas deal is milestone-based. One gigawatt is 1,000 megawatts.
| Project | Headline consideration | Power and timing | Earnings or tenant status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas site | Up to $600 million, tied to milestones | Targeting 1,000 MW by Oct. 2027, 2,000 MW by Apr. 2028 | Tenant interest noted, but so far no lease is signed |
| Long Ridge | Roughly $1.5 billion, with at least $785 million in assumed debt | 505 MW gas plant; campus could top 1,000 MW; aiming to close in H2 2026 | Annualized adjusted EBITDA running at about $144 million |
Long Ridge brings immediate cash flow, while Texas gives MARA exposure to possible future growth in electricity demand. Long Ridge comes in at roughly 10.4 times its $144 million annualized adjusted EBITDA, measured as a cash-earnings proxy before debt and noncash costs. MARA said this amount just annualizes Long Ridge’s expected second-half 2025 run-rate, and isn’t a projection.
By early afternoon, MARA split from two other miners that are being priced for AI and data-center links. Around 1 p.m. EDT, prices were:
| Company or asset | Price | Day move |
|---|---|---|
| MARA Holdings | $11.79 | down 3.1% |
| IREN Ltd. NASDAQ:IREN | $39.09 | up 1.3% |
| TeraWulf Inc. NASDAQ:WULF | $19.35 | off 0.3% |
| Bitcoin | $65,070 | added 0.7% |
MARA dropped about 3.8 percentage points more than bitcoin and did worse than other crypto miners. The company’s investor site still shows July 9 as the last current report. There’s no sign of a new filing, so the selloff looks like a valuation move, not news from fresh disclosures.
CEO Fred Thiel is pitching both deals as plays on scarcity. “Power is the scarce input in AI,” Thiel said during the Long Ridge announcement. On the Texas site, he said “sites with access to reliable, scalable power will become increasingly valuable.” HIF USA chief Renato Pereira said “construction on the switchyard to connect the site to the grid” has started. These moves matter, but without a signed customer contract, they don’t seal the deal. MARA
Balance-sheet numbers back up bitcoin’s role for MARA. At Wednesday’s bitcoin price, the company’s March 31 stash of 35,303 coins would be worth about $2.30 billion, making up 51% of its current market cap. That’s just for illustration, not a current count. MARA sold 20,880 bitcoin in Q1, and said it could buy or sell more based on market or funding needs.
The trade can flip fast. A tenant lease, quicker approvals, or a stronger bitcoin could bring back the deal premium. On the other hand, delays, more expensive construction, extra borrowing, or more stock could push the discount out further. MARA also agreed that HIF keeps a minority stake once a tenant lease is signed. That means MARA gets a smaller cut of future project profits.
Coming up are key tests for Long Ridge: closing in the second half, some Texas land and grid steps, and signing a tenant deal. None are binding yet and none bring in cash for now. Investors don’t seem ready to pay up for both bitcoin and promised future power. The real shift probably needs a contract to land, not just another boast about capacity.
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