HELSINKI, July 20, 2026, 15:08 EEST — Shares in Nokia Oyj HEL:NOKIA advanced ahead of Q2 earnings, with the group still contending with a considerable 72% profit headwind.
- Nokia gained 3.03% to €9.12. The OMX Helsinki 25 was up 0.49% as trading continued.
- The latest consensus ahead of Q2 projects sales of €4.822 billion and comparable operating profit of €376 million.
- Preliminary figures show that the second half accounts for 72% of the consensus profit estimate for the full year.
Nokia is required to generate €1.70 billion in comparable operating profit in the second half to align with analyst consensus estimates. This accounts for 72% of its forecast operating profit for 2026.
Meeting expectations in the second quarter would not address the profit challenge. A significant margin improvement would still be required after June.
Shares gained 3.03% to reach €9.12 as of 14:46 EEST. The OMXH25 was up 0.49%. Helsinki stocks are traded until 18:30 local time.
| Period | Net sales (€bn) | Comparable operating profit (€m) | Operating margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 reported | 4.497 | 281 | 6.2% |
| Q2 market estimate | 4.822 | 376 | 7.8% |
| First half indication | 9.319 | 657 | 7.0% |
| Yearly market forecast | 20.829 | 2,357 | 11.3% |
| Second half projection | 11.510 | 1,700 | 14.8% |
*The Q2 and full-year figures are based on Infront consensus estimates dated July 16. The H1 and H2 figures are preliminary calculations, not official Nokia guidance.
The bridge indicates an operating margin of 14.8% for the second half, an increase from about 7.0% in the first half. Sales are expected to rise by 24%, while profit would need to jump by 159%.
Projections for Q2 comparable operating profit range between €303 million and €457 million. Analysts expect a consensus margin of 7.8%.
Analysts on average forecast a quarterly sales increase of about 7.2%, matching Nokia’s anticipated growth band of 5% to 9%. The profit forecast stands at 16.0% of the annual consensus, positioning it at the high end of Nokia’s usual 12%–16% seasonal range.
During the first quarter, investor visibility into demand improved. Revenue from AI and cloud increased by 49%, resulting in €1 billion worth of orders. Optical Networks sales rose 20%.
Chief Executive Justin Hotard stated, “We are raising our growth outlook for Optical and IP Networks and allocating investments to meet the rising demand from AI & Cloud customers.” Nokia Corporation | Nokia
Nokia maintained its forecast for full-year comparable operating profit, projecting it to be between €2.0 billion and €2.5 billion. Analysts on average expect €107 million more than the midpoint of Nokia’s guidance.
Peer performance is less reassuring. Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson STO:ERIC-B reported a 6% decrease in Q2 revenue. The group’s network sales fell 8%, though adjusted operating income was marginally better than anticipated.
Ericsson CFO Lars Sandström told Reuters, “The whole AI build-out is putting quite the pressure on the whole industry, including us.” The company also warned of rising expenses for memory chips. Reuters
Risks: Higher component costs, shifts in currency values, tariffs, weaker customer demand, or postponed projects could widen Nokia’s profit gap in the second half.
Nokia plans to publish its results on July 23 at approximately 08:00 EEST. Markets will watch developments in AI and cloud bookings, gross margin performance, and the company’s guidance for the full year.
A quarter that meets expectations would leave the yearly goal within reach, though the bulk of the work would remain for the second half.
