NEW YORK, July 21, 2026, 04:06 EDT — U.S. stock futures advanced after chipmakers rebounded, though limited participation across sectors heightened expectations for upcoming AI-related earnings reports.
- Futures for the Nasdaq 100 advanced 1.3%, while S&P 500 futures gained 0.5%.
- Semiconductor firms could account for 44% of S&P 500 earnings growth in the second quarter.
- On Monday, around 64.3% of Nasdaq-listed stocks that were tracked declined, even though the index itself recorded only a slight decrease.
U.S. stock futures gained in early Tuesday action, with chip stocks leading advances. Nasdaq 100 futures were up 1.3%, compared with a 0.5% rise for S&P 500 futures and a 0.3% increase in Dow futures. The main cash session remained closed as initial trading progressed.
Nasdaq futures climbed at a rate 2.6 times higher than the S&P’s advance. However, the Nasdaq’s modest decline of 0.05% on Monday came as 64.3% of tracked stocks fell, pointing to widespread selling beneath the surface.
The slim foundation faces a significant earnings challenge. LSEG data indicates semiconductor earnings are expected to jump by 133%. This sector could account for 44% of the entire S&P 500’s profit growth. Projections for the wider index are at 26%.
| Investor signal | Latest reading | Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Tuesday futures | Nasdaq 100 up 1.3% | S&P 500 up 0.5%; Dow up 0.3% |
| Monday Nasdaq | Index down 0.05% | 64.3% of tracked stocks declined |
| Monday U.S. volume | 15.50 billion shares traded | 22.3% under 20-day average |
| Q2 profit forecast | Semiconductors up 133% | S&P 500 up 26%; semis contribution 44% |
*Based on disclosed breadth and volume data. Futures figures sourced from MarketWatch; earnings projections supplied by LSEG data as cited by Reuters.
That is the dividing line. For the rebound to hold, it requires confirmation from earnings, not just a decline in oil prices.
Last week’s performance was subdued. The Philadelphia semiconductor index ended 20.2% under its June 22 peak, dropping over 18% through July, but stayed almost 65% above its 2026 level. All major U.S. indexes reported weekly declines.
Monday’s move failed to completely erase the loss. The chip index climbed nearly 4% during the session, but finished up just 0.6%. The Dow dropped 0.59%, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.19% and the Nasdaq edged down 0.05%.
Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL, Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA and Texas Instruments NASDAQ:TXN are scheduled to report on Wednesday. Intel NASDAQ:INTC will release results Thursday after markets close.
Alphabet’s expenditure forecast offers the clearest indicator for the sector. Kevin Mahn at Hennion & Walsh noted that a cutback may send “ripple effects across the entire AI ecosystem.” Reuters
Expansion may not be enough. Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing NYSE:TSM trading in the U.S. fell after the company posted a 77% surge in quarterly net profit, surpassing expectations. Despite the robust results, the stock reacted tepidly.
Oil prices eased on Tuesday, with Brent slipping 1.1% to $88.26 and U.S. crude dropping 0.9% to $82.50. Markets considered a proposed 10-day ceasefire as regional tensions persisted.
Charu Chanana, Saxo’s chief investment strategist, described the uptick as “more like a relief rally than an all-clear signal.” Oil and technology sector earnings continue to offer only tentative backing. Reuters
Risks are balanced on both sides. If a ceasefire collapses, oil-driven inflation and increased rate pressure could return. Weaker-than-expected AI spending outlooks may prompt renewed selling, with leveraged chip products amplifying the decline.
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