NEW YORK, August 2, 2026, 11:29 EDT — U.S. share markets ended session; Bitcoin remains active.
- Bitcoin is down 27.9% in 2026, compared to a 38.6% drop for Strategy.
- Strategy boosted its Bitcoin holdings by 25%, yet posted a 4.5% BTC Yield.
- MSTR recorded a 30-day volatility of 84%, while Bitcoin’s was 29%.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) is ahead of Strategy Inc. NASDAQ:MSTR by 10.7 percentage points so far this year. This lead endures even after Strategy increased its coin holdings by a quarter.
The takeaway for investors is clear. Despite significant Bitcoin growth, corresponding per-share performance has lagged. Strategy’s BTC Yield metric was only 4.5% as of July 26.
| Asset | Dec. 31, 2025 | Latest price | 2026 return | July 24–31 | 30-day volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | $87,508.83 | $63,060 | -27.9% | -2.0% | 29% |
| Strategy | $151.95 | $93.28 | -38.6% | +1.8% | 84% |
Returns are based on listed prices. Bitcoin was active at 11:29 EDT. MSTR data is as of the July 31 close.
Last week saw a short-term reversal. MSTR gained 1.8% over the week from Friday to Friday, as Bitcoin declined by 2.0%. A 4.6% drop for MSTR on Friday wiped out much of its previous recovery.
The difference becomes more pronounced after adjusting for risk. MSTR’s 30-day volatility measured nearly triple that of Bitcoin. At the close on Friday, Strategy traded at 1.05 times its adjusted net asset value.
| Layer of the strategy | Verified 2026 measure | What it captures |
|---|---|---|
| Gross balance sheet | Bitcoin holdings +25.5% | Aggregate coin holdings |
| Per-share execution | BTC Yield +4.5% | Bitcoin allocated per fully diluted share |
| Common-equity outcome | MSTR return -38.6% | Market return for shareholders |
Strategy reported holding 672,500 Bitcoin at the end of the year, rising to 843,775 by July 26.
The strategy notes that BTC Yield should not be considered a standard shareholder return. It calculates Bitcoin per assumed diluted share, excluding senior claims such as debt and preferred securities.
Funding was robust. Strategy secured $2.95 billion via MSTR share sales and $5.47 billion from preferred stock in the second quarter. By July 26, it had raised a further $1.28 billion selling common stock.
The coin reserve has been reached by the structure. Strategy has sold $218.4 million worth of Bitcoin this year to help pay a portion of its preferred dividends. The company still holds authorization for further sales through established programs.
| Asset or cushion | Amount | Claim or benchmark | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin market valuation* | $53.2 billion | Bitcoin acquisition cost | $63.69 billion |
| USD cash reserve | $3.75 billion | Convertible notes | $6.71 billion |
| Reserve duration | 2.1 years | Yearly interest and preferred payouts | $1.759 billion |
| Adjusted NAV ratio | 1.05 times | Bitcoin under average buy-in | 16.5% |
Initial calculation using 843,775 Bitcoin priced at $63,060. The amount fluctuates constantly.
The reserve reduces immediate liquidity stress but does not eliminate common-share subordination. Strategy’s preferred and debt claims remain senior to MSTR in a liquidation event.
The second-quarter results revealed the wrapper’s weakness. Strategy posted a net loss of $8.22 billion for the period. The outcome was primarily caused by an $8.32 billion unrealized loss on Bitcoin. Preferred dividends widened the loss attributable to common shareholders to $8.62 billion.
Chief Financial Officer Andrew Kang quantified the financing challenge, stating, “Our BTC Hurdle ARR of 10.8% represents our current effective cost of credit.” The firm applies this rate when evaluating forward accretion of Bitcoin per share. Strategy
The issue is significant as preferred funding continues to sell below par. Strategy’s Stretch preferred stock NASDAQ:STRC last ended at $89.46, offering a 13.41% effective yield. Its dividend rate stays at 12% through August.
| Investor factor | Direct Bitcoin | MSTR common stock |
|---|---|---|
| Trading window | Available around the clock | Nasdaq trading hours |
| 30-day volatility | 29% | 84% |
| Corporate-equity dilution | Not applicable | ATM share issuance still open |
| Senior corporate claims | Not applicable | Debt and preferred shares have priority |
| Economic claim | Coins, depending on custody solution | Residual equity claim; Bitcoin cannot be redeemed |
| Return drivers | Bitcoin market value | Bitcoin, financing conditions, mNAV |
Direct Bitcoin provides more straightforward price exposure, despite its continued volatility. MSTR introduces risks relating to financing execution, dilution, and senior-claim. It has the potential to increase gains if both Bitcoin and capital markets rebound.
Markets resume trading on Monday, facing three key macro events this week. Manufacturing figures are due Monday, followed by services data on Wednesday and July jobs numbers on Friday. Each report has potential to influence yields and investor risk sentiment.
| Date | U.S. release | Time |
|---|---|---|
| Monday, August 3 | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 10:00 EDT |
| Wednesday, August 5 | ISM Services PMI | 10:00 EDT |
| Friday, August 7 | July jobs report | 08:30 EDT |
Risks: A swift surge in Bitcoin could promptly alter the ranking. Improved financing conditions may boost Strategy’s Bitcoin per diluted share. Holding Bitcoin directly involves custody, regulatory, and ongoing market risks.
Currently, direct Bitcoin appears more favorable for 2026. While MSTR may provide higher potential gains, the extra structure does not grant investors much in terms of asset-value premium.
Bitcoin vs Strategy Stock: MSTR's Premium Narrows to 1.05x
Friday-to-Friday: −1.98% • Sunday range: $62,280–$63,541
Weekly gain: +1.76% • After-hours: $92.85 • Company-defined mNAV: 1.05x
Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) beat Bitcoin over the trading week, but the stock fell harder after earnings. The larger signal is its 1.05x company-defined mNAV. The premium for owning Bitcoin through the corporate wrapper is now thin.
That changes the test for MSTR. A Bitcoin rebound helps both assets. Strategy also needs its financing premium, capital access and net Bitcoin per share to improve. Direct Bitcoin carries none of the company's debt, preferred-stock or dilution risk.
1.05x
The margin for accretive common-share issuance is narrow
Strategy defines mNAV as MSTR's share price divided by net Bitcoin per share after specified senior claims and the USD reserve. Above 1x, new common shares can increase net Bitcoin per share under the company's assumptions. At 1.05x, that cushion is only about 5%.
Friday-to-Friday performance • July 24–31
Strategy's holdings sit about $10.47 billion below cost
At the live Bitcoin quote, Strategy's 843,775 coins were worth an estimated $53.22 billion. Their reported purchase cost was $63.69 billion.
Holdings value versus acquisition cost
Bitcoin is 16.4% below Strategy's $75,476 average cost. It would need to rise about 19.7% to return to that level.
“Our BTC Hurdle ARR of 10.8% represents our current effective cost of credit.”
Andrew Kang, Strategy chief financial officer, July 30, 2026
The earnings loss was mostly a Bitcoin mark, not a cash loss
Strategy reported an $8.22 billion second-quarter net loss. An $8.32 billion unrealized digital-asset loss drove the result. Revenue rose 6.9% to $122.4 million.
The more important common-stock issue is capital allocation. Strategy raised cash, supported STRC and made no Bitcoin purchase in its latest disclosed week. MSTR's next period of sustained outperformance may require the mNAV premium to expand, not merely a higher Bitcoin price.
Jobs data and Strategy's next filing are the main tests
MSTR will absorb Bitcoin's weekend move. Any new company filing may show whether Bitcoin buying resumed.
A strong labor reading could lift Treasury yields and the dollar, adding pressure to risk assets.
The July employment report is the week's main macro event for Bitcoin, yields and MSTR.
Both assets ended near the lower part of last week's range
These are observed market levels, not price targets.
Risks
Bitcoin trades continuously, so MSTR can gap when Nasdaq reopens. Strategy can sell Bitcoin, issue common stock or direct cash toward preferred dividends and repurchases. Below 1x company-defined mNAV, common issuance would reduce net Bitcoin per share under the company's stated assumptions.
Bitcoin is the simpler exposure; MSTR still needs its premium to work
MSTR can regain amplification if Bitcoin rises, mNAV expands and new financing adds net Bitcoin per share after the 10.8% hurdle. Until then, Strategy's capital structure may matter as much as the coin itself.
Market data is not tailored investment guidance. The live Bitcoin quote and derived holding value are timestamped estimates. Scenario bands are observed levels, not price objectives. Strategy changed its mNAV methodology on July 23, 2026; earlier readings are not comparable, and the metric is not traditional net asset value.
