NEW YORK, August 3, 2026, 09:21 EDT
- Dow E-minis rose 1.12%, while S&P futures increased 0.55% and Nasdaq futures were up 0.16%.
- Brent crude declined by 6.6%, while the two-year Treasury yield slipped 5.4 basis points.
- The ISM manufacturing index for July will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET. Analysts expect a median figure of 54.0, compared to 53.3 recorded in June.
U.S. equity futures climbed on Monday, with the Dow outperforming significantly. The index’s percentage increase was sevenfold compared to the Nasdaq 100’s rise. The cash market had not yet opened as of the dateline, with nine minutes left until the opening bell.
The 0.96 percentage point gap stands as the most definitive indicator from investors. This points to a move focused on relief from inflation, not a complete recovery for AI. Oil prices and short-term yields both dropped, with a number of chip and storage stocks also losing ground.
The delayed futures report lined up against Friday’s cash trading as detailed below.
| U.S. benchmark | Futures-point move | Futures move | Friday cash move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow E-mini | +589 | +1.12% | +0.53% |
| S&P 500 E-mini | +41 | +0.55% | +0.70% |
| Nasdaq 100 E-mini | +46.75 | +0.16% | Nasdaq Composite up 1.00% |
Moves across assets reinforced that interpretation. Brent and WTI climbed over 20% throughout July. The decline on Monday partly unwound that surge in energy prices.
| Market signal | Premarket reading | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent crude | Near $83 per barrel | -6.6% |
| WTI crude | $78.90 per barrel | -6.8% |
| Two-year Treasury yield | — | Down 5.4 basis points |
| Ten-year Treasury yield | 4.682% | Falling |
| VIX futures | — | Down 1.87% |
John Williams, president of the New York Fed, expressed careful optimism on the outlook. “My forecast personally is for inflation to come down in the second half of this year,” he stated. Williams added that policymakers would act if inflation did not ease as expected. Reuters
Earnings have served as another buffer. Over half of the S&P 500 companies have posted results, with 86% surpassing profit forecasts. “Earnings have generally held up well,” said Bruno Schneller, managing partner at Erlen Capital. Reuters
Technology retains greater valuation risk. The Nasdaq Composite declined by 3.2% during July. The S&P 500 slipped by 0.1%, while the Dow edged up by 0.3%. Monday’s futures gap continues that trend.
The key laggard company actions reflected targeted purchases rather than a broad-based rally.
| Premarket stock | Move | Verified driver |
|---|---|---|
| Ferguson Enterprises NYSE:FERG | +8.5% | S&P 500 to add before Wednesday market open |
| Palantir Technologies NASDAQ:PLTR | +2.9% | Quarterly results expected later this week |
| Advanced Micro Devices NASDAQ:AMD | -2.3% | Quarterly results to be posted this week |
| Micron Technology NASDAQ:MU | -3.9% | Chinese competitor reported capacity expansion plans |
| Marriott International NASDAQ:MAR | -3.9% | Third-quarter earnings outlook fell short of forecasts |
| Tyson Foods NYSE:TSN | -2.5% | Company cut its full-year earnings outlook |
Ferguson’s addition to the index is set to trigger short-term buying by passive funds. Marriott projected adjusted earnings per share for the quarter ranging from $2.74 to $2.82. Analysts’ consensus was $2.87.
Micron’s drop introduced fresh supply worries to the AI sector. Palantir advanced ahead of its earnings, while AMD declined. The divergence highlights that investors continue to assess AI-related firms on a case-by-case basis.
The morning’s data schedule may immediately challenge the inflation-driven optimism. Forecast data are still initial projections.
| Time, ET | Release | Median forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09:45 | S&P Global NYSE:SPGI U.S. manufacturing PMI final | — | 53.8 |
| 10:00 | ISM manufacturing PMI | 54.0 | 53.3 |
| 10:00 | Construction spending | +0.3% | +0.1% |
Risks: Iran denied any scheduled talks, in contrast to the U.S. version. Fresh attacks may drive oil prices back up. A stronger factory-price figure may push up yields and wipe out the Dow’s gains.
The initial measure is market breadth. For a sustained advance, the Nasdaq gap needs to close while crude stays subdued. If not, the rally depends on a single, unstable geopolitical premise.
