NEW YORK, August 4, 2026, 05:09 EDT
- Micron finished Monday at $829.50, an increase of 0.8%, before rising another 3.2% in premarket trading.
- Early consensus estimates forecast fiscal 2027 EPS at $155.56, suggesting a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.3.
- CXMT’s projected fabrication plants may increase capacity to over 600,000 wafers monthly.
The discussion over Micron’s valuation centers on the sustainability of its earnings. As of Monday’s close, a normalized multiple of 10 times suggests sustainable EPS at $82.95, which is 46.7% under early fiscal 2027 consensus estimates.
This is significant as the recent jump in earnings was driven mainly by pricing. DRAM prices for the fiscal third quarter climbed in the low-260% range compared to a year earlier, while bit shipments grew only in the low-20% range.
The U.S. regular market session was shut, but premarket activity continued. Micron fell 10.6% over the previous week. The Nasdaq rose 1.6%. On Monday, a CXMT report pushed Micron shares down 4.5% in early trade, but the stock recovered to finish in positive territory.
| Preliminary earnings basis | EPS | P/E at $829.50 | EPS growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal 2026 consensus | $73.43 | 11.3x | — |
| Fiscal 2027 consensus | $155.56 | 5.3x | 111.8% |
| Fiscal 2028 consensus | $181.37 | 4.6x | 16.6% |
Consensus forecasts are subject to significant revision. All ratios are calculated based on Monday’s closing price.
The primary difference in the linked analyses lies in their choice of earnings denominator. Motley Fool’s consensus scenario results in a forward multiple of less than five times for fiscal 2028. By contrast, Seeking Alpha contributor James Foord applied more cautious assumptions, arriving at a multiple in the mid-teens. Foord has disclosed a long position.
| Assumed normalized P/E | EPS at $829.50 | Lower than FY27 consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 10x | $82.95 | 46.7% |
| 12x | $69.13 | 55.6% |
| 15x | $55.30 | 64.4% |
This is an illustrative sensitivity and does not represent an earnings forecast. The calculations are based on initial consensus estimates for fiscal 2027.
The math clarifies the seeming paradox. Micron may appear undervalued even as investors anticipate a sharp downturn. The key issue remains the eventual level of normalized earnings.
Micron’s operating performance remains strong. Third-quarter revenue was $41.46 billion, with fourth-quarter guidance indicating growth to approximately $50 billion.
| Operating measure | FQ3 2025 | FQ2 2026 | FQ3 2026 | FQ4 2026 guidance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.30 bln | $23.86 bln | $41.46 bln | $50.0 bln ± $1.0 bln |
| Non-GAAP gross margin | 39.0% | 74.9% | 84.9% | Roughly 86% |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $1.91 | $12.20 | $25.11 | $31.00 ± $1.00 |
| Adjusted free cash flow | $1.95 bln | $6.90 bln | $18.30 bln | No data available |
Management expects that extending customer agreements will help stabilize fluctuations. “We believe our multi-year Strategic Customer Agreements will significantly enhance the durability and predictability of Micron’s strong financial performance,” Chief Executive Sanjay Mehrotra said. Micron Technology
However, Micron’s filing highlights the significant impact of pricing on its performance. Gross margin climbed to 85%, compared with 38% in the same period a year ago. The company attributed this increase mainly to higher selling prices.
| Comparison | Product | Sales change | ASP change | Bit-shipment change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ3 2026 vs FQ2 2026 | DRAM | +67% | Low-60% level | Low single digits |
| FQ3 2026 vs FQ2 2026 | NAND | +99% | Mid-80% level | Mid single digits |
| FQ3 2026 vs FQ3 2025 | DRAM | +343% | Low-260% level | Low-20% level |
| FQ3 2026 vs FQ3 2025 | NAND | +361% | Mid-310% level | Low double digits |
ASP stands for average selling price.
ChangXin Memory Technologies SHA:688825 is weighing plans for a second DRAM facility in Beijing. The company’s three current plants operate at close to 100,000 wafers per month each. New projects in Beijing, Shanghai, and Hefei have the potential to more than double its total wafer capacity. The exact capacity for the proposed Beijing plant has not been disclosed.
| Producer | Q1 2026 DRAM revenue share | Q1 2026 HBM revenue share |
|---|---|---|
| Samsung Electronics KRX:005930 | 38% | 21% |
| SK hynix KRX:000660 | 29% | 58% |
| Micron | 22% | 21% |
| CXMT | 8% | Cited data did not disclose |
Conventional DRAM appears likely to face pressure first. Rosenblatt Securities analyst Kevin Cassidy described Monday’s stock retreat as a “knee-jerk reaction” to news about CXMT, noting uncertainty over the extent of CXMT’s technology gap. Morningstar NASDAQ:MORN analyst William Kerwin identified only modest near-term risk, but cautioned that ongoing industry expansion might weigh on DRAM prices by 2028. Morningstar
Foord projected that share repurchases might remove between 8% and 19% of Micron’s outstanding shares. This reflects the author’s analysis rather than official statements from the company. In the last quarter, Micron reported $18.3 billion in adjusted free cash flow and net capital expenditures of $7.1 billion.
The Future of Memory and Storage conference will run from August 4 to August 6, with presentations by Micron technical staff planned. Micron’s subsequent investor webcast is scheduled for August 10. Market participants are expected to look for distinct capacity updates on traditional DRAM and HBM.
Risks are still significant. CXMT’s build-out may face delays, and HBM deals might keep prices elevated for an extended period. On the other hand, if supply expands at the same time, AI demand tapers off, export restrictions tighten or funding costs increase, profits could shrink sooner.
