NEW YORK, August 6, 2026, 04:09 EDT — U.S. equity premarket trading active; main cash session remains closed.
- AppLovin was last at $355, a drop of 15.0% from its previous close of $417.80 on Wednesday. The shift indicated a provisional loss of $21.0 billion in equity value.
- Second-quarter revenue increased 53% to $1.924 billion, falling short of consensus estimates by approximately $18.2 million, while diluted EPS was in line with forecasts.
- The midpoint for third-quarter revenue came in 0.5% below analysts’ expectations, while adjusted EBITDA midpoint missed by 2.0%.
AppLovin dropped 15.0% to $355 in premarket trade on Thursday, after narrowly missing revenue estimates and issuing weak guidance for the third quarter.
With 335 million shares at the end of the quarter, the drop wiped out an estimated $21.0 billion. That is approximately 1,150 times greater than the $18.2 million revenue miss. The figure is an initial estimate.
The gap outweighs the miss. Investors are questioning the dependability of upcoming model gains rather than focusing on a single quarter’s numbers.
Q2 results.
| Metric | Q2 actual | Benchmark | Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.9237 billion | Street: about $1.9419 billion | $18.2 million under |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $1.6138 billion | Company: $1.615-$1.645 billion | $1.2 million less than the bottom range |
| Diluted EPS | $3.76 | Street: $3.76 | Meets forecast |
| Free cash flow | $863.3 million | Q2 2025: $768.1 million | Up 12.4% |
Revenue increased 53% year-on-year. Adjusted EBITDA jumped 58%, though it fell slightly short of the company’s projected range.
Chief Executive Adam Foroughi spoke directly, stating: “This quarter, we fell short of that standard.” Foroughi pointed to model timing as the cause for the miss, not a drop in advertiser demand. Investing.com
Management stated that a significant upgrade to the model was implemented after the end of the quarter. Spending by consumer advertisers ended up 28% higher than the seasonal high reached in the fourth quarter of 2025.
AppLovin Chief Financial Officer Matt Stumpf stated that the SEC informed the company its investigation was closed with no recommended action. While that update eased one uncertainty, concerns about growth persisted.
Outlook for the third quarter compared with forecasts.
| Metric | Company guidance | Midpoint | Street estimate | Midpoint gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.055-$2.085 billion | $2.070 billion | $2.080 billion | -0.5% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $1.710-$1.740 billion | $1.725 billion | $1.760 billion | -2.0% |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | Approximately 83% | 83% | Q2 actual: 84% | -100 basis points |
The revenue midpoint comes in just $10 million below consensus estimates. EBITDA midpoint falls short by $35 million, and the expected margin declines by one percentage point.
The forecast from management factors in model upgrades currently in use and increased computing expenses, but does not account for model launches that are still pending implementation.
Past five sessions along with Thursday premarket.
| Date | Session | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 30 | Regular close | $403.87 | up 1.10% |
| July 31 | Regular close | $395.90 | down 1.97% |
| August 3 | Regular close | $406.16 | rises 2.59% |
| August 4 | Regular close | $419.70 | gains 3.33% |
| August 5 | Regular close | $417.80 | slides 0.45% |
| August 6 | Premarket | $355.00 | falls 15.03% |
The stock rose 3.45% over the five regular sessions ahead of its earnings report. In premarket trading at $355, it was $4 under its previous regular-hours 52-week low.
Most recent analyst ratings shown.
| Date | Firm | Recommendation | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 6 | William Blair | Buy, reaffirmed | — |
| August 5 | Evercore ISI NYSE:EVR | Buy, reaffirmed | — |
| August 3 | Citigroup NYSE:C | Buy, reaffirmed | $710 |
| August 3 | UBS Group NYSE:UBS | Buy, reaffirmed | $798 |
| July 30 | Bank of America Securities NYSE:BAC | Buy, repeated | $705 |
The consensus view stayed strongly bullish, featuring 20 buy ratings and one hold. The average price target stood at $664.33, with most forecasts issued before Wednesday’s results.
Ad tech valuations as of Wednesday’s market close.
| Company | Closing price | Trailing P/E |
|---|---|---|
| AppLovin NASDAQ:APP | $417.80 | 35.9x |
| The Trade Desk NASDAQ:TTD | $18.96 | 21.5x |
| Magnite (NASDAQ:MGNI) | $20.67 | 19.7x |
AppLovin debuted with a significant premium over its ad-tech competitors. With a price of $355, the implied multiple is close to 30.5 times, remaining higher than both peers. However, the comparison is not exact, as growth rates and revenue breakdowns vary.
AppLovin maintained strong cash generation, using $551.3 million to buy back or withhold shares for taxes, representing approximately 64% of its free cash flow in the quarter.
In the coming week, focus will be on broker estimate updates and full-day price discovery. The prior $359 low serves as the initial reference level.
Risks: AppLovin’s expansion continues to rely on irregular improvements in its model. Increased investments in computing power may narrow margins, and its revenue from consumer advertising trails that of gaming. Premarket trading is characterised by lower liquidity and greater volatility.
The quarter performed well by typical standards. AppLovin’s valuation anticipated exceptional consistency, and Thursday’s adjustment highlights that expectation.
