NEW YORK, August 7, 2026, 13:08 EDT (U.S. market open)
- Nu dropped 1.3% as of midday, while the S&P 500 rose 0.45%.
- Early Q2 consensus projects earnings at $0.20 per share, compared to $0.21 per share a month earlier.
- Risk-adjusted margin remains the key metric, with Q1 allowances up 33%.
Shares of Nu Holdings Ltd. NYSE:NU slipped 1.3% to $13.93 on Friday, underperforming the S&P 500, which gained 0.45%. Over the course of the week, the stock lost roughly 2.8%.
Brazilian fintechs saw weakness persist in their shares. Nu experienced a less steep decline compared to Inter & Co Inc. NASDAQ:INTR and StoneCo Ltd. NASDAQ:STNE, while its performance was similar to PagSeguro Digital Ltd. NYSE:PAGS.
| Company | Price near 12:52 EDT | Move on the day | Market capitalization |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nu Holdings NYSE:NU | $13.93 | -1.3% | $66.65 billion |
| Inter & Co NASDAQ:INTR | $5.42 | -5.2% | $2.38 billion |
| StoneCo NASDAQ:STNE | $10.68 | -3.6% | $3.30 billion |
| PagSeguro Digital NYSE:PAGS | $9.24 | -1.3% | $3.04 billion |
Recent company updates were largely procedural. At Thursday’s annual meeting, shareholders backed the 2025 accounts with 99.88% approval and re-appointed nine directors with 96.23% support.
Nu announced its Mexican unit will launch commercial-bank activities on August 6. The unit has over 15 million customers. Attaining full-bank status is expected to expand product offerings, though it will also increase execution requirements.
The more challenging test comes after U.S. markets close on August 13. Early estimates project Q2 earnings at $0.20 per share, around 11% higher than the rounded Q1 figure of $0.18.
The projection has decreased. It was $0.21 both a month and three months earlier. The consensus for full-year 2026 has declined to $0.84 from $0.87.
| Preliminary EPS forecast | Latest | One month prior | Three months prior | Difference from three months prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0.20 | $0.21 | $0.21 | -4.8% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.22 | $0.22 | $0.23 | -4.3% |
| Full-year 2026 | $0.84 | $0.85 | $0.87 | -3.4% |
| Full-year 2027 | $1.11 | $1.11 | $1.15 | -3.5% |
The updated version is significant as Q1 highlighted a steeper credit trade-off. The portfolio increased by 7% quarter-on-quarter and 40% year-on-year, climbing to $37.2 billion. Credit-loss provisions were up 33%, totalling $1.79 billion.
Risk-adjusted net interest margin declined by 100 basis points to reach 9.5%. Early-stage delinquencies increased by 89 basis points to 5.0%. The loan-to-deposit ratio rose to 58.3% from 49.1%.
| Credit and efficiency measure | Q1 2026 | Change from Q4 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Credit-loss allowances | $1.79 billion | up 33% |
| Risk-adjusted NIM | 9.5% | down 100 basis points |
| 15–90 day NPL ratio | 5.0% | higher by 89 basis points |
| 90-day-plus NPL ratio | 6.5% | 10 basis points lower |
| Loan-to-deposit ratio | 58.3% | increase of 9.2 percentage points |
| Efficiency ratio | 17.6% | decrease of 2.3 percentage points |
Offsetting factors were present. Delinquencies over ninety days declined to 6.5%. The efficiency ratio advanced to 17.6%, with net income totaling $871 million. Return on equity stood at 29%.
Executives emphasized a disciplined approach on Thursday. David Vélez, founder and CEO, stated that Nu relies on a “pessimist bias” when underwriting. Newly appointed CFO Rob Livingston described maintaining continuity as his “first priority.” Nubank International
Analysts remain broadly positive though optimism has eased somewhat. There are now 17 buy ratings, three holds, one underweight, and one sell. Three months earlier, the figures stood at 18 buys, two holds, and one sell.
| Analyst rating | Now | One month prior | Past three months |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | 17 | 17 | 18 |
| Overweight | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Hold | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Underweight | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Sell | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Consensus | Overweight | Overweight | Buy |
The median price target stands at $18, representing an approximate 29% premium to the present share price. Estimates range between $10 and $22. This substantial gap suggests credit quality will likely play a decisive role.
Nu holds approval for a $1 billion buyback program valid until June 3, 2027, representing about 1.5% of its present market capitalisation. The repurchase initiative is optional and does not constitute a guaranteed price minimum.
Risks: As lending growth continues, initial delinquencies may further increase. Higher international investment levels could counteract improvements in efficiency. Execution risks are heightened by Mexico’s transition and upcoming U.S. market launch.
Investors are primarily focused on four Q2 figures: risk-adjusted NIM, allowances, early NPLs, and loan-to-deposit. An upside on revenue is unlikely to resolve the discussion. A rebound in margins might.
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