NEW YORK, August 9, 2026, 17:05 EDT — U.S. trading ended with TeraWulf confronting a 12% delivery challenge tied to its 839-MW AI pipeline.
- TeraWulf dropped 3.3% over the past week, underperforming the Nasdaq Composite by 8.5 percentage points.
- The company has brought online 102 MW from a total of 839 MW of AI and computing capacity under contract.
- Leasing for high-performance computing accounted for 71% of revenue in the second quarter. Adjusted EBITDA stayed negative.
TeraWulf Inc. NASDAQ:WULF has secured contracts for 839 megawatts dedicated to AI and high-performance computing, with just 102 MW currently operational. The 12.2% rate of activation is now a main focus for the company’s shares.
The shares ended Friday at $17.08, falling 3.3% over the week. The Nasdaq Composite rose 5.2%, widening the performance gap to 8.5 points. U.S. markets did not open on Sunday.
Demand does not present the most pressing limitation. TeraWulf is required to transform 737 MW into operational halls and revenue-generating leases. As a result, investors are backing construction and the project timeline.
The capacity bridge pinpoints the location of that risk. Data comes from company filings; percentages have been calculated by reporters.
| Site or customer | Contracted critical-IT load | Energized | Remaining or under construction | Company timetable |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Mariner | 438 MW | 102 MW | 336 MW currently being built | Lease payments start in H2 2026; subsequent phases scheduled into early 2027 |
| Justified / Anthropic | 401 MW | Not started | 401 MW | First delivery takes place in H2 2027; full output expected by early 2028 |
| Total | 839 MW | 102 MW | 737 MW | 12.2% now online |
Once Lake Mariner’s 336 MW is finished, total energized capacity will reach 438 MW. This represents just 52.2% of the contracted load. The balance comes from the Anthropic block.
The shift in business model was evident during the second quarter. HPC lease revenue accounted for $31.9 million, representing 71% of total sales. Digital-asset revenue dropped to $12.8 million. Overall revenue slipped by 6.0%.
| Financial measure | Q2 2026 | Q2 2025 | Year-on-year comparison |
|---|---|---|---|
| HPC lease revenue | $31.9 million | — | Introduced as new revenue source |
| Digital-asset revenue | $12.8 million | $47.6 million | Declined by 73.1% |
| Total revenue | $44.8 million | $47.6 million | Reduced by 6.0% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $(18.3) million | $14.5 million | $32.9 million shift to negative |
The pivot has still to deliver adjusted earnings in the black. A non-cash warrant-valuation charge of $755.7 million was the primary factor behind the net loss attributable of $939.9 million. Despite this accounting charge, significant construction requirements persist.
As of June 30, cash and restricted cash stood at $3.03 billion. Equipment acquisitions and deposits for the first half amounted to $1.38 billion, while $154.3 million was spent on operations. The planned sale of the Abernathy data center is expected to contribute approximately $530 million.
Chief Executive Paul Prager stated TeraWulf is transitioning “from platform formation to scaled execution.” This is the proper perspective for investors. Contract value becomes relevant solely once delivery has occurred and rent has started. TeraWulf Inc.
Anthropic’s leases represent approximately $19 billion in initial contracted revenue, with potential extension options bringing the total up to $33 billion. The contracts are set for future periods. The earliest Justified delivery is expected in the second half of 2027.
TeraWulf outperformed Hut 8 Corp. NASDAQ:HUT and Cipher Digital Inc. NASDAQ:CIFR in the weekly peer review, but underperformed compared to IREN Limited NASDAQ:IREN and Applied Digital Corporation NASDAQ:APLD.
| Stock or index | Five-day performance to August 7 |
|---|---|
| IREN | +12.04% |
| Applied Digital | +6.68% |
| Nasdaq Composite | +5.19% |
| TeraWulf | −3.28% |
| Hut 8 | −17.69% |
| Cipher Digital | −23.03% |
The divergence is significant. TeraWulf showed better performance than this week’s biggest fallers. However, it trailed behind AI-infrastructure leaders and the wider technology sector. Investors seem to be separating signed demand from upcoming supply.
According to FactSet Research Systems Inc. NYSE:FDS, analysts’ outlooks stay much more upbeat than recent market action. Nineteen have Buy ratings and one rates Overweight. None recommend Hold or Sell.
| FactSet analyst measure | Current reading | Comparison with $17.08 close |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst recommendations | 19 Buy; 1 Overweight | 100% positive |
| Median price estimate | $36.00 | 111% potential gain indicated |
| Average price estimate | $37.37 | 119% potential upside indicated |
| Lowest target | $25.00 | 46% potential upside |
| Highest target | $72.00 | 322% potential upside |
The target range is notably broad, spanning $25 to $72. This wide spread highlights uncertainty regarding delivery, funding, and long-term lease viability. Most analysts remain optimistic. However, expectations for execution are set high.
TeraWulf is not set to host any investor events in the week ahead. U.S. consumer inflation figures are expected on Wednesday, producer price data on Thursday, and retail sales on Friday. Key company developments continue to focus on CB-4 commissioning and the start of second-half rent.
Risks: TeraWulf is yet to energize 737 MW of its contracted capacity. Potential risks to returns include delays, rising costs, power supply issues, permit requirements, dependence on key customers, equity dilution, and fluctuations in Bitcoin prices.
The upcoming rerating catalyst is clearly defined. Rather than a sizable new contract, it involves transitioning 336 MW currently being built into active, rent-generating capacity.
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