SÃO PAULO, August 11, 2026, 15:15 EDT
- Nu shares dropped 2.2% to $13.56 before Thursday’s Q2 earnings release.
- Analyst consensus suggests a 22% upside, though projections range from $10 to $22.
- In Q1, early-stage delinquencies increased as credit costs grew faster than revenue.
Nu Holdings Ltd. NYSE:NU declined 2.2% on Tuesday, ahead of its second-quarter earnings expected in two sessions. The digital banking firm was seventh on Yahoo Finance’s most-active stocks list, with trading volume reaching 60.9 million shares as of 3:07 p.m. EDT.
The decision presents investors with a direct question. Wall Street forecasts a 22% increase relative to the average target. However, Nu still needs to demonstrate that swift loan expansion does not reduce risk-adjusted returns.
| Market snapshot | August 11 reading |
|---|---|
| Share price | $13.56 |
| Daily change | -2.2% |
| Day range | $13.37-$13.90 |
| Volume at 3:07 p.m. EDT | 60.9 million |
| Three-month average volume | 75.0 million |
| 52-week range | $11.20-$18.98 |
Nu began trading at $13.87, dipping to a session low of $13.37. The share price stayed 28.6% under its highest point for the past 52 weeks. According to Yahoo’s real-time data, this reflected the latest price and trading volume, while Google Finance separately listed the price as $13.54 at 2:47 p.m. EDT.
The company is set to release Q2 earnings following Thursday’s market close, with its results call scheduled for 6 p.m. EDT. Nu’s investor-relations calendar lists the same timing.
| Earnings test | Q1 2026 actual | Q2 2026 consensus | Sequential change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Managerial revenue | $5.32 billion | $5.48 billion | +3.1% |
| Earnings per share | $0.19 | $0.20 | +5.3% |
Consensus forecasts point to modest growth quarter-on-quarter. The greater challenge lies beyond revenue: analysts are focused on credit costs, delinquency rates, and returns generated by the growing loan portfolio. Q2 projections are sourced from Google Finance, while Q1 management revenue figures are drawn from Nu’s report.
Nu reported a first-quarter credit portfolio of $37.2 billion, reflecting a 7% increase on an FX-neutral basis. Deposits totaled $42.4 billion. The loan-to-deposit ratio increased by 9.2 percentage points, reaching 58.3%.
| Credit and operating metric | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-adjusted net interest margin | 10.5% | 9.5% | down 1.0 percentage point |
| 15-90 day NPL ratio | 4.1% | 5.0% | up 0.9 percentage point |
| 90+ day NPL ratio | 6.6% | 6.5% | down 0.1 percentage point |
| Efficiency ratio | 19.9% | 17.6% | lower by 2.3 percentage points |
| Loan-to-deposit ratio | 49.1% | 58.3% | higher by 9.2 percentage points |
The performance was mixed. The efficiency ratio saw improvement, and late-stage delinquencies declined slightly. However, early-stage arrears climbed significantly, and the risk-adjusted margin decreased.
Credit costs climbed to $1.79 billion in Q1, representing a 72% increase compared to the same period last year in reported dollars. Managerial revenue was up 58%, but credit costs increased at a quicker pace.
Nu maintains that improved models enable growth with strong margins. “We are not adding AI to banking, we are rebuilding banking around AI,” founder and Chief Executive David Vélez stated in the Q1 report. The company said NuFormer now relies on predicted net present value to set prices and approve personal-loan applications. Nu Q1 results release
Nu’s strategy resulted in 135.2 million customers as of March. Revenue per active customer each month increased to $15.90. In Mexico, the customer base surpassed 15 million and the operation achieved break-even.
| Analyst | Firm | Recommendation | Target | Latest action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tito Labarta | Goldman Sachs | Buy | $22 | Reiterated, July 22 |
| Yuri Fernandes | J.P. Morgan | Buy | $20 | Reiterated, July 7 |
| Kyle Peterson | Needham | Buy | $17 | Started coverage, June 26 |
| Gustavo Schroden | Citi | Hold | $13 | Lowered rating, June 12 |
| Mario Pierry | Bank of America Securities | Sell | $10 | Lowered rating, June 2 |
Out of nine recent analyst ratings, six were buys, two were holds, and one was a sell. The average price target stood at $16.54. Price targets ranged from $10 to $22, highlighting varying analyst views on credit quality and international expansion.
Risks: Depreciation of the Brazilian real may dampen growth when measured in U.S. dollars. An acceleration in credit growth could increase provisions and late-stage defaults. Investments in Mexico and the United States have the potential to constrain operating leverage.
The key numbers to watch on Thursday are the risk-adjusted margin and the NPL ratio for the 15-90 day period. If these indicators remain steady, the consensus view of a 22% upside remains plausible. However, further declines could give more weight to the bearish $10 target.
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