STARBASE, Texas, August 18, 2026, 15:50 EDT — U.S. cash trading remained underway.
- SpaceX shares were down 2.6%, trading at $142.36 just before the close on Tuesday.
- Approximately 319 million shares will be cleared for sale starting August 20.
- The block represents 3.3 average trading days based on the most recent price.
Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. NASDAQ:SPCX dropped 2.6% to $142.36 as of 15:49 EDT on Tuesday, remaining under Monday’s closing price of $146.23, with investors bracing for a fresh post-IPO share offering.
The next significant batch consists of around 319 million shares held by early investors and insiders that can be sold starting Thursday. Based on Tuesday’s late-session price, the value of those shares stood at roughly $45.4 billion.
| Unlock measure | Calculated value | Investor context |
|---|---|---|
| Shares available August 20 | 319 million | Second phase unlock |
| Valued at $142.36 | $45.4 billion | Represents supply; not a predictive sale figure |
| Compared with an average volume of 97.79 million | Equivalent to 3.3 trading days | Market intake may extend |
| Relative to 8.09 billion shares issued | 3.9% | Significant but not decisive |
Meeting eligibility does not equate to actual selling. Still, the proportion illustrates how float can drive short-term price movements. At 15:38 EDT on Tuesday, 71.1 million shares had traded—less than the average over three months. The unlock amounted to 4.5 times that trading volume.
Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens said that a high proportion of outstanding shares may enter the market, since initial investors have both low entry prices and have held the stock for an extended period. He predicted a “wave” of share sales could occur when the earlier lockup ends. TradingView report
The prospectus outlines the structure. Investors not subject to Elon Musk’s longer lock-up may sell 7% portions after 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days. Musk’s holdings are locked for 366 days.
| Late-session market snapshot | Price | Daily move | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX NASDAQ:SPCX | $142.36 | -2.65% | 71.10 million |
| Rocket Lab NASDAQ:RKLB | $79.10 | -3.63% | 12.24 million |
| AST SpaceMobile NASDAQ:ASTS | $66.81 | -6.09% | 6.94 million |
The downturn extended beyond SpaceX. Rocket Lab Corp. NASDAQ:RKLB dropped 3.6%, and AST SpaceMobile Inc. NASDAQ:ASTS slid 6.1%. This weakens the argument that Tuesday’s SpaceX drop was driven solely by an unlock event.
Operations delivered assistance. SpaceX scheduled its next Falcon 9 Starlink flight for Tuesday night following two swift launches over the weekend. The pace is relevant, but the supply surplus persisted.
| Q2 revenue | 2026 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Space | $962 million | $746 million | up 29.0% |
| Connectivity | $4.291 billion | $2.588 billion | increase of 65.8% |
| AI | $2.561 billion | $737 million | jumping 247.5% |
| Total | $7.814 billion | $4.071 billion | rise of 91.9% |
The company’s earnings profile makes straightforward aerospace valuation challenging. Connectivity represented 55% of revenue in the second quarter. AI accounted for 33%, an increase from 18% in the previous year. Space brought in only 12%. The firm now encompasses three distinct business segments under a single ticker.
| Analyst or consensus | Rating | Target | Upside/downside at $142.36 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clear Street — Brian Dobson | Buy | $217 | +52% |
| Deutsche Bank — Edison Yu | Buy | $235 | +65% |
| Morgan Stanley — Adam Jonas | Buy | $300 | +111% |
| UBS — John Hodulik | Buy | $210 | +48% |
| Phillip Securities — Glenn Thum | Sell | $75 | -47% |
| 32-analyst consensus | 24 Buy / 6 Hold / 2 Sell | $228.59 average | +61% |
The analyst forecasts vary widely. The $75 bear case is 47% lower than Tuesday’s close, while Morgan Stanley’s $300 price target would see shares more than double. The gap highlights divisions over AI valuation, capital spending and how long Starlink can keep generating cash.
As of June 30, following its IPO and debt issuance, SpaceX held $93.5 billion in cash. The company also maintained significant spending levels. Artificial intelligence capital expenditures in the second quarter totaled around $15.8 billion, ensuring that cash conversion remains a focal point of discussion.
Risks: If eligible shares cannot be sold on Thursday, the supply projection might be underestimated. Demand could rise if Starlink’s launch succeeds or new contracts emerge. However, increased insider selling, postponed launches, or greater AI expenditure could add to volatility.
The first hurdle is quantifiable. Investors face the task of digesting a possible $45.4 billion block as they evaluate a company where the swiftest-expanding segment is simultaneously the largest source of expenditure. Turnover on Thursday will reveal which factor holds more influence.
Related articles: NASDAQ:ASTS
| View | Rating | Target | Vs. $142.36 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Securities | Sell | $75 | -47% |
| 32-analyst average | 24B / 6H / 2S | $228.59 | +61% |
| Morgan Stanley | Buy | $300 | +111% |
| Raymond James | Buy | $800 | +462% |
