NEW YORK, August 21, 2026, 13:51 EDT – Shares of TeraWulf fell 5.7% after the company reported cash holdings of $3 billion, which now match the scale of its 336-MW buildout.
- TeraWulf stock declined 5.7% to $15.52 during Friday’s session.
- The 336-MW Lake Mariner project indicates a cost range of $2.69 billion to $3.36 billion.
- Outstanding shares increased by 18.8% over six months as the pace of expansion quickened.
TeraWulf Inc. NASDAQ:WULF dropped 5.7% on Friday as investors considered significant AI-infrastructure plans in relation to its capital needs. Shares were trading at $15.52 at 1:51 p.m. EDT while U.S. markets remained open.
The main figure is 336 megawatts, representing TeraWulf’s Lake Mariner site currently being built, compared with 102 MW that is already operational and generating revenue. Management projects costs between $8 million and $10 million per essential IT megawatt.
When considered for the entire build, this equates to a range of $2.69 billion to $3.36 billion. The midpoint is closely aligned with TeraWulf’s approximately $3.0 billion in cash and restricted cash as of June 30. Securing project financing could reduce the cash requirements for the company.
| Market snapshot | Value |
|---|---|
| Last traded price | $15.52 |
| Session change | -5.68% |
| Total market value | $7.74 billion |
| Trading volume | 32.90 million |
| 52-week low/high | $8.60–$29.84 |
| Data as of | Aug. 21, 2026, 13:51 EDT |
The funding comparison accounts for the stock’s sensitivity to scheduling. The facility being built is 3.3 times larger than existing revenue-generating capacity. Even minor shifts in timing can affect when revenue is recorded and alter funding requirements.
| Lake Mariner build | Value | Read-through |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue-generating capacity | 102 MW | Existing base |
| Capacity being built | 336 MW | 3.3× existing base |
| Guided cost | $8m–$10m per MW | Company-provided range |
| Inferred build cost | $2.69bn–$3.36bn | Derived range |
| Total cash, incl. restricted | About $3.0bn | Approximates build midpoint |
TeraWulf generated $31.9 million from high-performance-computing leases in the second quarter, making up 71% of its revenue after a shift in its business mix. Revenue from bitcoin mining declined 73% compared to the same period last year.
Chief Financial Officer Patrick Fleury said the second quarter represented another important milestone in reshaping the company’s financial profile. He pointed to strong liquidity and the ability to obtain project-specific financing.
| Q2 revenue mix | Q2 2026 | Q2 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| HPC lease revenue | $31.9m | — | Launched as new driver |
| Digital-asset revenue | $12.8m | $47.6m | -73% |
| Total revenue | $44.8m | $47.6m | -6% |
| HPC share of revenue | 71% | 0% | Mix shift |
Robust long-term demand persists. Anthropic has agreed to a 20-year lease for approximately 401 MW in Kentucky. The agreement’s initial period is set to generate around $19 billion in contracted revenue, with deliveries anticipated to start in late 2027.
The value is further complicated by near-term dilution. As of June 30, the number of common shares outstanding rose to 498.9 million, marking an 18.8% increase from December. Morgan Stanley’s latest model estimates 624.8 million fully diluted shares, which is approximately 25% higher than the present basic share count.
| Share-count bridge | Shares | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Outstanding as of Dec. 31, 2025 | 420.1m | Base |
| Outstanding as of June 30, 2026 | 498.9m | +18.8% |
| Morgan Stanley’s fully diluted projection | 624.8m | +25.2% compared to basic |
| Current market capitalisation, basic | $7.74bn | With $15.52 price |
| Implied fully diluted market value | $9.70bn | At the same price per share |
Stephen Byrd of Morgan Stanley lowered his price target to $62.50 from $72 last week, attributing the change to an increased fully diluted share count rather than to operational underperformance.
Analyst sentiment is still notably optimistic. Of the analysts tracked, eighteen recommend buying or strongly buying TeraWulf. Their average price target of $36.64 suggests an upside of roughly 136% from Friday’s midday share price.
| Analyst | Firm | Recommendation | Target | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brendler | Rosenblatt | Buy | $30 | Aug. 21 |
| Brian Dobson | Clear Street | Buy | $36 | Aug. 18 |
| Gautam Chhugani | Bernstein | Buy | $36 | Aug. 13 |
| Stephen Byrd | Morgan Stanley | Buy | $62.50 | Aug. 13 |
| Michael Rollins | Citi | Buy | $31 | Aug. 12 |
| Consensus | 18 analysts | Strong Buy | $36.64 | Aug. 21 |
There is broad agreement on demand, with little contention. The main point of divergence remains execution. TeraWulf faces the task of turning locked-in power into functioning halls, while ensuring lease value is not eroded by costs or share dilution.
Risks: Returns may come under strain from delays in construction, increased equipment expenses, and reliance on a limited customer base. Potential equity or warrant dilution could impact per-share gains. Accelerated delivery and project-level debt secured on favourable terms could help mitigate these issues.
Friday’s drop brings that test into the spotlight. While the AI contracts are significant in size, the gap between contracted megawatts and realized revenue remains considerable.
Related articles: NASDAQ:WULF
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