NEW YORK, August 24, 2026, 10:12 EDT
- CrowdStrike shares were at $191.02, a decline of 0.48%, in Monday’s regular trading.
- Options are pricing in an 8% move on earnings, representing approximately $15.6 billion in market capitalization.
- Analysts expect revenue to rise by 23%, with earnings per share at $0.29 after adjusting for the split.
- Jefferies increased its price target to $230 on Monday while maintaining a Buy rating.
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. NASDAQ:CRWD was down 0.48% at $191.02 as of 09:55:15 EDT on Monday. Options markets are pricing in a much bigger move after earnings on Wednesday, with implied volatility suggesting an 8% move in either direction.
The scale of volatility is significant in dollar terms. Eight percent of CrowdStrike’s $194.74 billion market value represents about $15.6 billion. That figure is nearly 10.8 times greater than the $1.44 billion in quarterly revenue forecast by analysts.
| Market snapshot | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Latest price | $191.02 | 09:55:15 EDT, Aug. 24 |
| Session movement | -0.48% | During regular hours |
| Today’s range | $189.52-$195.40 | As of 09:55 EDT |
| 52-week range | $85.68-$227.50 | Google Finance |
| Market value | $194.74 billion | At observed time |
CrowdStrike is set to release its fiscal second-quarter earnings after U.S. markets close on August 26. The company’s conference call will start at 17:00 EDT.
The stock began trading at $189.52 and climbed to $195.40 before slipping back. Palo Alto Networks, Inc. NASDAQ:PANW was down 1.84% at about the same point. The similar trend in a peer signals that some of CrowdStrike’s decline was due to broader weakness in cybersecurity shares.
| Earnings bridge | Q1 FY2027 actual | Q2 FY2027 benchmark | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.39 billion | $1.44 billion consensus | Up about 3.6% from last quarter |
| Revenue versus prior year | +26% | +23% consensus | Growth rate 3 percentage points lower than before |
| Ending ARR | $5.51 billion | $5.794 billion guidance midpoint | Increase of approximately $284 million |
| Non-GAAP operating income | $325.7 million | $347.4 million guidance midpoint | Rose about 6.6% |
The company projected second-quarter revenue between $1.436 billion and $1.442 billion. Management also expects annual recurring revenue (ARR) to reach approximately $5.794 billion. ARR reflects the contracted subscription revenue run rate.
The implied sequential ARR increase stands at approximately $284 million, representing an increase of about 28% over the net-new ARR of $221 million posted in last year’s second quarter. This would come after a record $256 million ARR addition in the April quarter.
In June, CEO George Kurtz stated that CrowdStrike observed “platform adoption from existing customers, new logo lands, and increased partner engagement.” Following that quarter, the company raised its full-year net-new ARR growth midpoint to 27.7%. CrowdStrike
| Options scenario | Implied share level | Market-value change |
|---|---|---|
| 8% higher | Near $206 | Roughly +$15.6 billion |
| Reference price | $191.95 Friday close | — |
| 8% lower | Under $175 | Roughly -$15.6 billion |
| Each percentage point | Near $1.92 | Roughly $1.95 billion |
Options markets currently suggest a potential upward move to approximately $206 or a drop below $175. A one percentage point change in the company’s market value equates to nearly $1.95 billion. This figure surpasses the prior year’s second-quarter revenue of $1.17 billion.
Visible Alpha projects revenue will rise 23% to $1.44 billion. The forecast for split-adjusted earnings stands at $0.29 per share. Trading on a split-adjusted basis began on July 2 following the four-for-one split.
| Analyst | Recommendation | Target | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Gallo, Jefferies | Buy | $230 | Aug. 24 |
| Shrenik Kothari, Baird | Hold | $220 | Aug. 21 |
| Meta Marshall, Morgan Stanley | Buy | $227 | Aug. 21 |
| Peter Levine, Evercore ISI | Hold | $205 | Aug. 20 |
| Yi Fu Lee, Benchmark | Buy | $250 | Aug. 18 |
Jefferies analyst Joseph Gallo on Monday increased his price target to $230 from $190 while maintaining a Buy rating. The broker described its latest channel checks as “incrementally positive.” Jefferies also noted that expectations have climbed alongside the recent rally. Jefferies note summary
Bank of America takes a more cautious stance. Its analysts noted elevated expectations could make surpassing this quarter’s targets challenging. They are monitoring CrowdStrike’s “ability to convert AI-driven security demand” into Falcon sales.
Risks: Even if revenue exceeds expectations, shares may not rise if net-new ARR or guidance fall short. The downside scenario in options would cut roughly $15.6 billion in value. Ongoing risks include competition, extended sales cycles, and expenses related to the July 2024 outage.
The upcoming challenge is ARR conversion. On Wednesday, investors will see if a record pipeline delivers at least the approximately $284 million sequential rise outlined in guidance.
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