STARBASE, Texas, September 5, 2026, 12:05 p.m. CDT — Space Exploration Technologies Corp. NASDAQ:SPCX faces its next test as a public company this week. Up to 378.1 million shares become eligible for sale on Wednesday and Thursday.
That sum equals 7.7 days of Friday’s trading volume. It sounds formidable. Yet these are existing shares, not fresh issuance, and eligibility does not mean holders will sell.
SpaceX closed Friday at $147.95, down 1.2% for the session. The shares remain 9.6% above June’s $135 initial-public-offering price and gained 4.6% across the latest six sessions.
SpaceX held above its IPO price
SPCX daily close, U.S. dollars; six sessions through Friday
The IPO prospectus sets the schedule. As many as 319.0 million non-affiliate shares may clear the lockup on September 9. A further 59.1 million affiliate-held shares may follow one day later.
The distinction matters. Affiliates face additional securities-law limits, while other holders may have more freedom to trade. Neither group has disclosed an intention to sell the full amount.
The lockup opens in stages
Maximum Class A shares becoming eligible; eligibility is not a sales forecast
Source: SpaceX final IPO prospectus. Amounts are “up to” figures.
The two-day total also equals 59.2% of the 638.9 million shares sold when the IPO and underwriters’ option closed. That is a scale comparison, not an estimate of tradable supply.
The headline number dwarfs one day’s turnover
September 9–10 eligibility compared with September 4 volume
Calculated from the prospectus schedule and Nasdaq volume data.
There is useful precedent. SpaceX rose 6.1% on August 6 even though as many as 911.5 million shares had become eligible, the Associated Press reported. Demand absorbed the calendar event that day.
Fundamentals now compete with supply mechanics. Second-quarter revenue reached $7.81 billion, up 92% from a year earlier. Connectivity revenue increased 66%, while AI revenue more than tripled.
Growth came at a cost. SpaceX recorded a $541 million quarterly loss, though that narrowed from $1.01 billion. Starlink service lines doubled to 12 million, while monthly average revenue per subscriber fell to $66 from $85.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas kept an Overweight rating and a $300 target this week. He earlier called the stock a “unique opportunity to revisit” near its IPO price. Morgan Stanley also served as an IPO bookrunner.
At Friday’s close, that target implies roughly 103% upside. The gap captures powerful growth expectations. It also leaves little room for execution failures across Starlink, Starship and the company’s fast-expanding AI infrastructure.
More supply dates follow. Up to 328.4 million additional shares may clear restrictions on both September 24 and October 9. Most remaining locked shares reach their scheduled release in December, while Elon Musk’s block stays restricted longer.
The immediate risk is volatility, not automatic dilution. Heavy insider selling could pressure the price, especially if volume fades. Limited sales would instead shift attention back toward revenue growth, losses and capital spending.
Wednesday’s useful signal will be actual turnover. The prospectus supplies a ceiling. The market will reveal how many holders choose the exit.
