New York, July 11, 2026, 12:09 (EDT)
3M Company NYSE:MMM tacked on about $1.1 billion in market value Friday as shares climbed $2.18, or 1.4%, to close at $157.52 after New York filed another lawsuit targeting “forever chemicals.” But U.S. markets are shut for the weekend and the bounce looks muted: shares fell 1.8% on the week, with 1.94 million MMM shares trading on Friday, just 51% of the 65-day average. MarketWatch
Analysts are quietly raising profit targets. The 2026 consensus for adjusted earnings per share — which strips out certain special items — is now $8.73, up from $8.66 three months ago. That’s three cents higher than the upper end of 3M’s $8.50 to $8.70 guidance. The second-quarter estimate now sits at $2.25, two cents higher than a month earlier, which tightens the bar for an in-line report.
| Investor hurdle | Latest | Earlier or benchmark |
|---|---|---|
| Second-quarter adjusted EPS consensus | $2.25 | $2.23 a month ago |
| 2026 adjusted EPS consensus | $8.73 | $8.66 from three months ago |
| 3M’s 2026 adjusted EPS outlook | $8.50-$8.70 | Consensus tops guidance by $0.03 |
| Price divided by guidance midpoint | 18.3 times | $157.52 per share, midpoint $8.60 |
| Median analyst price target | $178 | Up 13% from Friday’s close |
The tension comes just 10 days ahead of 3M’s Q2 conference call set for July 21 at 8 a.m. Central. Wolfe Research’s Nigel Coe stuck with a Buy rating on July 9, keeping his $189 target, or roughly 20% above Friday’s close. The potential is plain, but 3M must deliver the earnings to back it up.
3M lagged behind the S&P 500 for the week by about three points, with other industrials also down. Honeywell International NASDAQ:HON and Illinois Tool Works NYSE:ITW slipped, and DuPont de Nemours NYSE:DD, which is also a co-defendant in the New York case, dropped more.
| Security | July 10 close | Weekly change |
|---|---|---|
| 3M | $157.52 | -1.8% |
| Honeywell | $226.42 | -1.5% |
| Illinois Tool Works | $268.81 | -1.4% |
| DuPont | $134.68 | -3.7% |
| S&P 500 | 7,575.39 | +1.2% |
Compared to the July 2 close, which was the last trading day before the July 3 Independence Day break.
New York is seeking money for cleanup, consumer warnings, damages, restitution and civil penalties in its complaint, but hasn’t specified a damages amount. The complaint says 3M, DuPont and others knowingly sold PFAS, or forever chemicals, which do not break down in people or the environment. The companies didn’t reply to requests for comment.
3M came into the quarter in better shape operationally. Adjusted EPS for the first quarter was up 14% at $2.14, and adjusted operating margin ticked higher by 0.30 point. Still, CFO Anurag Maheshwari said, “we expect first-half earnings per share to be higher than the second half,” so the profit split matters almost as much as total profit. Reuters
Cash is harder to see. Cash, equivalents and marketable securities dropped to $4.2 billion at March 31 from $5.9 billion at year-end. 3M said most of the decrease came from $2 billion in buybacks, $400 million in dividends and $300 million in legal and PFAS-related costs, with $300 million of insurance recoveries easing the drop. The company still has $2.7 billion left on its buyback program.
Investors face four key economic reports ahead of 3M’s earnings. June’s Consumer Price Index comes Tuesday, July 14. Producer Price Index lands Wednesday. Retail sales data hits Thursday. Industrial production arrives Friday. Producer prices look at costs for manufacturers, while industrial production covers output at factories, utilities and mines. 3M’s views on input cost pressures and demand for industrial goods will get tested by these numbers.
The setup is shaky. Any new legal expenses, higher producer prices or disappointing factory numbers could make that $8.73 consensus target a downgrade risk. If earnings miss the $2.25 quarterly call, or if there’s another heads-up about profits being skewed to the first half, Friday’s thin-bounce looks vulnerable. The lawsuit doesn’t name damages, so it’s tough to pin down the hit, but the risk is there.
On July 21, investors are focused on adjusted organic sales growth, looking for signs of an uptick with M&A and currency out of the numbers. They’ll watch if margins can handle cost pressure, and if 3M is still repurchasing shares as it handles ongoing legal payouts. A beat and an outlook hike clears the bar. A beat with the same guidance might not.
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