AAL jumps as oil falls and Jefferies lifts target

AAL jumps as oil falls and Jefferies lifts target

New York, June 16, 2026, 17:01 EDT

  • American Airlines climbed 1.6% to $15.71, after reaching a high of $16.17 earlier.
  • Oil dropped, with Brent and U.S. crude losing around 5% as the market reacted to signs the Strait of Hormuz could reopen.
  • Jefferies lifted its target on American Airlines to $15 from $13, maintaining a Hold.

American Airlines Group traded higher Tuesday. The stock held up after oil prices sank for a second straight day, easing pressure for U.S. airlines. Jefferies also raised its price target.

Shares last changed hands at $15.71, up 25 cents from where they ended Monday. Volume topped 133 million shares. The stock stuck below its session high at $16.17.

Fuel has become key for airline profits this year. Brent crude finished at $78.96 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate closed at $76.05. Both are at lows not seen since early March after reports surfaced on a temporary U.S.-Iran agreement that could lead to the Strait of Hormuz reopening.

Crude is dropping quickly as traders bet the Strait of Hormuz could reopen any time now, Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho, wrote in a note quoted by Reuters. About 20% of the world’s oil moved through the waterway before the conflict.

Jefferies’ Sheila Kahyaoglu bumped up her price target on American Airlines to $15 from $13 and left her Hold call unchanged. The analyst, after a meeting with management, said demand is still solid. Fares are tracking 20% higher than last year. She also noted only modest customer churn.

American had already told investors back in April that its second-quarter adjusted EPS, which leaves out one-time items, could come in anywhere from a loss of 20 cents to a gain of 20 cents a share. The airline also projected 2026 adjusted EPS in a range from a 40 cent loss to a profit of $1.10, even as it faces more than $4 billion in extra costs for higher jet fuel.

American Airlines CEO Robert Isom told the Bernstein investor conference last month that the airline was “not making any changes” to its forecast, despite seeing fuel costs projected to rise by $4 billion to $5 billion this year. Isom said corporate travel was up 13% from a year earlier and described leisure demand as “incredibly” strong. Reuters

Mixed moves on the competitive read-through. Delta Air Lines dropped 1.1% and United Airlines slipped 1.2%. But Southwest Airlines added 3.0%. Investors seemed to be sorting out the winners after airlines rallied broadly on Monday.

Stocks were mixed. The Dow ended at another record high, up for a second day, but the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 closed lower on Tuesday. Tech shares saw profit-taking as investors waited for the Federal Reserve’s policy move.

The setup could change quickly. The oil deal holds execution risk, and Reuters said shipping and energy exports might take weeks to come back even if the strait opens again. Any delay, new fighting, or another spike in crude would hurt American at a tricky time, as its guidance still ranges from a full-year loss to a profit, and investors are watching debt and fuel costs.

Jerzy Lewandowski

Jerzy Lewandowski is a senior markets editor at TS2.tech. His coverage ranges from stocks and semiconductors to AI and the broader global markets. He studied economics at the University of Warsaw and worked in investment analysis before becoming a financial journalist. Follow Jerzy Lewandowski on Google News.

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