HONG KONG, July 20, 2026, 05:05 HKT
- Alibaba introduced Qwen3.8-Max-Preview on Sunday, stating the model features 2.4 trillion parameters. Independent verification of its performance ranking is still pending.
- The ADR rose 2.35% over the past week, holding on to 49.3% of Wednesday’s dollar advance by the close on Friday.
- Hong Kong shares ended Friday at HK$112.60. Trading will continue from 09:30 HKT.
Alibaba Group Holding (NYSE:BABA; HKG:9988) started Monday with a new AI development. The company introduced Qwen3.8-Max on Sunday, following the close of trading for both its listings.
At 05:05 HKT, Hong Kong’s pre-opening session was yet to start. The auction is scheduled for 09:00, with continuous trading commencing at 09:30.
Alibaba states the model features 2.4 trillion parameters. According to the company, Qwen3.8 ranks just behind Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5, with this ranking reflecting Alibaba’s own evaluation.
Alibaba has not confirmed a production timeline. According to its documentation, the preview could be removed or substituted.
Token Plan subscriptions are offered with introductory prices of 39, 139 and 499 yuan per month. Initial deep usage discounts are aimed at attracting first-time users, but could cap early revenue growth.
The latest boost to the model comes after last week’s larger distribution trigger. On Wednesday, China approved Apple NASDAQ:AAPL Intelligence for deployment on local iPhones.
Alibaba announced Qwen will be compatible with Apple’s key operating systems in China. Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU; HKG:9888) is likewise collaborating with Apple. No official launch date has been provided.
Alibaba ADRs rose 4.78% on Wednesday after the registration announcement. Shares closed Friday at $114.97, ending the week up 2.35%.
Friday’s closing price held onto 49.3% of Wednesday’s dollar increase, meaning just over half of the gain was given back.
| Metric | Wednesday, July 15 | Friday, July 17 |
|---|---|---|
| ADR close | $117.69 | $114.97 |
| Change from July 14 close | 4.78% | 2.36% |
| Trading volume | 20.23 million | 11.28 million |
| Volume relative to 65-day average | 62% higher | 10% lower |
The calculations are based on reported closing prices, trading volumes, and the 12.49 million-share average recorded on Friday.
Wednesday’s gains carried added significance due to increased volume. Turnover climbed to 20.23 million shares, before dropping by nearly half on Friday.
Part of Friday’s decline was broad-based, with the Nasdaq dropping 1.40% and Alibaba shedding 2.14%.
This raises a key issue for investors: Will broader model distribution lead to sustained, paying demand for cloud services?
Alibaba posted a 38% increase in cloud revenue, reaching 41.63 billion yuan. In the quarter, AI offerings accounted for 30% of external cloud revenue.
CEO Eddie Wu stated in May, “Our technology investments are beginning to pay off commercially.” However, adjusted EBITA declined by 84%, reflecting expenditures on AI and quick-commerce. Reuters
Traders are set to monitor external testing developments and Qwen3.8 subscription demand this week. A confirmed Apple release date could clarify the distribution schedule, but no such details have been announced.
Risks: Qwen3.8 is still in a preview phase and Alibaba’s ranking has not been independently verified. Apple may encounter further delays with its China launch. Ongoing significant AI investments could keep putting pressure on margins.
The threshold was set by last week’s trading. While AI distribution has the potential to boost Alibaba’s valuation, enduring gains depend on concrete evidence of paid usage.
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