SAO PAULO, March 13, 2026, 19:48 BRT
- Morgan Stanley reiterated its Sell rating and R$11 price target, pointing to aluminum cost pressures and what it sees as a stretched valuation.
- Ambev’s U.S. shares ended Friday at $2.86, following a 4.01% slide the previous day.
- February numbers landed ahead of expectations, though lighter volumes and climbing brewing expenses remain central to the stock discussion.
Ambev S.A. caught some attention again Friday, with Morgan Stanley sticking to its Sell rating on the brewer. U.S.-listed shares held flat at $2.86 late—barely budging from Thursday’s close after tumbling 4.01% the previous session. Over in Sao Paulo, the stock climbed roughly 1.5% during Friday’s trade, according to Reuters quote data.
The story with Ambev is straightforward right now. The brewer topped expectations in February, but shrinking volumes shifted the debate — it’s less about sales momentum, more about margins, costs, and returns to shareholders. For the fourth quarter, net profit slid 9.9% to R$4.53 billion. Organic net revenue, up 4.8% to R$24.81 billion. Volume? Down 3.6%.
Morgan Stanley’s Ricardo Alves hasn’t budged from his R$11 price target, TipRanks noted, warning that pricier and jumpier aluminum could squeeze Ambev’s Brazil beer margins. On the company’s IR site, Morgan Stanley shows up among a handful of bears—Goldman Sachs and XP Investimentos are also there—while most other shops covering the stock have stayed Neutral.
The local environment weighed on sentiment. Brazil’s Ibovespa dropped 0.91% Friday, with investors trimming positions ahead of the weekend and eyeing Middle East risks. Even so, Ambev shares outperformed the main index.
Management is sticking to its margin target. “We have ambition to continue to expand margin,” Chief Executive Carlos Lisboa told analysts on the Feb. 12 results call. He pointed to Ambev’s broader product lineup as a lever, saying it lets the company juggle affordability and profitability. Investing.com Brasil
Cash returns are in play here too. Ambev announced it’s set to make the initial interest on own capital payment—Brazil’s version of a dividend—on April 6, with shareholders due to receive a gross R$0.075 per share.
The broader brewing picture isn’t moving in just one direction. Back in February, AB InBev pointed to big events like the soccer World Cup as potential drivers for demand in 2026, despite facing a challenging market. That’s a sign beer makers aren’t counting out a pickup in consumption as the year goes on.
The risk side remains obvious. Ambev’s own guidance puts Brazil beer cash production costs per hectoliter — that’s 100 liters — up 4.5% to 7.5% for the year. On Thursday, Morgan Stanley flagged the possibility that the market isn’t fully pricing in the pressure.
Otherwise, recent filings haven’t stood out. On March 11, the company reported that Information Technology Vice President Eduardo Eiji Horai had resigned, effective March 4—a departure, not part of a broader operational change.
First-quarter earnings are due May 5. In the meantime, investors will stay focused on a handful of key points: costs, cash returns, and whether the margin narrative holds up if volumes don’t show convincing improvement.
