NEW YORK, July 17, 2026, 06:08 EDT
- American ended Thursday at $15.60, falling 8.0% since July 10.
- The public range suggests a multiple of 44.6 times earnings at the midpoint, or 14.2 times at the upper end.
- American Airlines will report its second-quarter results on July 23, before U.S. markets open.
American Airlines Group Inc. NASDAQ:AAL requires a strong profit result in 2026 for its forward earnings multiple to align with industry peers.
By the end of trading on Thursday, the stock traded at 44.6 times its midpoint guidance of 35 cents. The ratio drops to 14.2 times if measured against the $1.10 top end.
Demand appears steady, but profit conversion remains an issue. Peers recently reported that fares stayed firm even as fuel costs increased.
The comparison is based on Thursday’s closing prices and the most recent full-year adjusted EPS guidance for each carrier. Valuation estimates for American are provisional ahead of its July 23 update.
| Company | Thursday close | 2026 adjusted EPS guide | Guide date | Price/midpoint | Price/top end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines Group Inc. NASDAQ:AAL | $15.60 | -$0.40 to $1.10 | Apr. 23; reaffirmed May 27 | 44.6x | 14.2x |
| United Airlines Holdings Inc. NASDAQ:UAL | $118.81 | $9.00 to $11.00 | July 15 | 11.9x | 10.8x |
| Delta Air Lines Inc. NYSE:DAL | $86.70 | $6.50 to $7.50 | July 10 | 12.4x | 11.6x |
*Preliminary, according to American’s current guidance. Figures are based on adjusted EPS ranges and closing prices from Thursday.
American’s highest multiple is above the midpoint values of both rivals. At the midpoint, it is over three times that of each peer.
This measures market stress, rather than offering a standard valuation opinion. American’s range dips below zero. Investors might assess the stock based on projected normalized 2027 earnings.
U.S. cash markets remained shut at the dateline. Premarket activity was ongoing. American closed Thursday 8.0% lower than its July 10 level.
Oil raised the stakes. Brent was at $84.75 and U.S. crude hit $79.80, with both benchmarks on track to finish the week over 11% higher.
In April, American forecast second-quarter adjusted EPS in a range from a loss of 20 cents to a profit of 20 cents, and anticipated revenue would rise by 13.5% to 16.5%.
That is the dilemma. Sales may increase rapidly even as adjusted profit remains close to zero.
In late May, Chief Executive Robert Isom stated that American would “not make any changes” to its annual forecast, which remains between a 40-cent loss and $1.10 earnings per share. Reuters
United reported second-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.99 this week and raised its 2026 forecast range to $9-$11.
United regained around half of its fuel cost rise for the quarter. The company anticipates recovering 80%-90% in the third quarter and achieving complete recovery by the fourth quarter.
Chief Executive Scott Kirby stated that yields are expected to approach “reasonable pre-pandemic levels.” United noted that increased fares had little to no negative impact on demand. Reuters
Delta delivered a comparable statement last week. Revenue increased by nearly 14% while capacity grew by about 1%. The airline offset around 60% of its fuel cost rise for the quarter.
American planned to offset nearly half of its fuel hike in the second quarter. For the third quarter, it aimed to recover 75%-85%, and in the fourth, more than 90%. A fresh rise in oil prices now challenges this outlook.
American closed March holding $34.7 billion in debt and $10.8 billion in liquidity. The company’s July 23 call will begin at 7:30 a.m. CDT.
Investors are set to monitor the updated fuel curve, third-quarter unit revenue, and full-year EPS. If the range remains unchanged, evidence will be needed to show that the upper end is attainable.
Risks are present in both directions. A new surge in oil prices or surplus capacity later in the year may reduce earnings. On the other hand, lower fuel costs and sustained ticket prices could increase profits.
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