Fort Worth, July 20, 2026, 05:06 (CDT)
- Nasdaq trading was shut. Shares of American Airlines Group Inc. NASDAQ:AAL were down 0.4% at $14.92 in premarket trade.
- Initial forecast: The outlook for the second quarter suggests revenue between $16.3 billion and $16.8 billion, with adjusted profit expected to be at or close to zero.
- The company is scheduled to release its results Thursday at 7:30 a.m. CT.
American Airlines Group Inc. NASDAQ:AAL is under pressure to deliver a slim profit after its stock fell sharply. The airline’s shares dropped 11.6% last week, while the S&P 500 declined by 1.6%.
Revenue expansion is not the current issue. American forecast second-quarter growth between 13.5% and 16.5%.
American Chief Executive Robert Isom stated the airline was “on track for another record” quarter. American Airlines Newsroom
Based on last year’s base of $14.392 billion, the forecast suggests a range between $16.33 billion and $16.77 billion. This estimate is still provisional.
The company projects adjusted EPS in a range from a 20-cent loss to a 20-cent gain. With 661.4 million shares used for calculations, this is about a $132 million loss or profit.
The estimated adjusted net margin ranges from minus 0.8% to plus 0.8%. This calculation is still preliminary and could change.
| Company | Week move | Q2 revenue growth | Q2 status |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines Group Inc. NASDAQ:AAL | -11.6% | +13.5% to +16.5% forecast | Set to report July 23 |
| United Airlines Holdings Inc. NASDAQ:UAL | -8.4% | +16.0% reported | Adjusted pretax margin at 4.8% |
| Delta Air Lines Inc. NYSE:DAL | -3.7% | +14.0% reported | Adjusted pretax margin 7.7% |
Weekly stock movements are calculated using the closing prices from July 10 and July 17. Operating figures reflect results reported by companies or their latest management outlooks.
The comparison sets a higher bar for American when it comes to converting profits.
The two use separate profit measures. Nevertheless, each peer converted comparable revenue increases into positive adjusted pretax margins.
United posted an adjusted pretax margin of 4.8%, while Delta’s reached 7.7%. Both carriers reported quarterly revenue increases, with United up 16% and Delta rising 14%.
United CEO Scott Kirby stated that increased fares resulted in “minimal to no damage” to demand, setting a higher bar for American’s efforts to recover fares. Reuters
In April, American reported recovering nearly 50% of its increased second-quarter fuel expenses. The company anticipated recouping between 75% and 85% of those costs in the third quarter.
Fuel price swings continue to be pronounced. Brent crude dropped to $87.96 on Monday after earlier reaching $91.42, marking its strongest level since June 11.
Alongside its slim margin, the carrier faces significant liabilities. American closed the March quarter holding $34.7 billion in total debt.
The debt stood at approximately 3.5 times Friday’s equity value of $9.91 billion. High leverage means each margin point has greater significance for common shareholders.
Investors are set to focus on Thursday’s full-year outlook, which ranges from a loss of 40 cents to a profit of $1.10. Attention will also be on fuel recovery and unit costs excluding fuel.
Risks: Prolonged declines in oil prices may boost margins more rapidly than anticipated. Surges in fuel costs or declining demand for fares could hinder recovery.
Thursday’s main focus will be on profit. Sales growth is already showing robust results.
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