New York, July 7, 2026, 08:22 EDT
- Foldable iPhone shipments for Q3 assembly are projected at 0.5 million to 1.0 million units. That’s well under the 20 million to 22 million range expected for iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max.
- With prices between $2,300 and $2,500, the launch pool for the first quarter totals just $1.15 billion to $2.50 billion in retail terms, before looking at channel effects.
- Memory prices are in focus. China’s 618 phone sales dropped 13% from last year, while TrendForce expects DRAM and NAND to go up again in Q3.
Apple Inc. NASDAQ:AAPL is offering what analysts call a scarcity trade with its first foldable iPhone. The phone could sell for more than twice the price of a Pro model, but with shipping volumes too low to have much near-term impact on Apple’s top line. That setup is intentional. Ming-Chi Kuo at TF International Securities said foldable iPhone shipments might come in at just 0.5 million to 1 million units in the third quarter, compared to 20 million to 22 million units for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max. With a launch price between $2,300 and $2,500, that adds up to $1.15 billion to $2.5 billion in possible retail sales for the quarter.
Apple was indicated at $312.66 ahead of the open, up $4.12 from its last close. Regular Nasdaq trading kicks off at 9:30 a.m. Eastern and wraps at 4 p.m. Eastern, according to .
Kuo said the foldable iPhone could use the same playbook as the iPhone X, getting announced along with other iPhones but not shipping right away. He thinks buyers will stick around despite a high price, and says the phone may “sell out immediately.” Medium
| Measure | Latest foldable iPhone estimate | Scale check |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 assembly shipments | 0.5 mln–1.0 mln units | That’s 2.3%–5.0% of what’s forecast for iPhone 18 Pro and Max |
| 2H assembly shipments | 7 mln–8 mln units | $16.1 bln–$20.0 bln, using $2,300–$2,500 for retail price |
| Earlier supplier target reported by Nikkei | About 10 mln units | $23.0 bln–$25.0 bln if price holds in the same range |
| Gap between 10 mln target and Kuo’s 7 mln–8 mln forecast | 2 mln–3 mln units | $4.6 bln–$7.5 bln retail value; timing for those may get pushed out |
Apple reported $111.2 billion in revenue last quarter, covering the March period. The possible Q3 launch of a foldable is small compared to Apple’s main business. The main issue now is whether the device helps Apple hold on to premium pricing as memory costs tick up.
TrendForce sees conventional DRAM contract prices climbing 13% to 18% in Q3 from the previous quarter. NAND Flash contract prices are set to go up 10% to 15%. The firm said smartphone makers are likely to lift retail prices to deal with high LPDRAM costs, which could hit handset sales.
China smartphone sales slid 13% year over year during the 618 festival, according to Counterpoint data cited by Reuters. Apple sales dipped 9%, but the company moved up to No. 2 after putting incentives on the iPhone 17 Pro. Xiaomi Corp HKG:1810 dropped 24%. Honor fell 33%. Huawei sales jumped 19%. “Apple’s prices were broadly unchanged, but its discounts were also smaller,” said Counterpoint’s Ivan Lam. Reuters
| China 618 signal | Change / position | Investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Total smartphone sales | Off 13% from a year ago | Higher memory costs eating into how much sellers can discount |
| Apple NASDAQ:AAPL | Down 9%, climbed to No. 2 spot | Did better than most local brands, but sales still fell |
| Xiaomi Corp HKG:1810 | Dropped 24% | Android price war is heavy |
| Huawei | Gained 19%, 21% market share | Chinese market still tough to crack |
| Reported iPhone 17 Pro savings | Up to 2,000 yuan off | Needed some incentives to spur demand, lower than last 618 |
Apple is weighing its own memory supply options. Bloomberg, via The Star, reported that Apple is in talks with ChangXin Memory Technologies and Yangtze Memory Technologies to buy memory parts for devices in China. Both companies appear on a U.S. Defense Department list for allegedly backing China’s military, the report said, and Apple would not comment. Currently, Apple sources memory from Samsung Electronics Co KRX:005930, SK Hynix Inc KRX:000660, and Micron Technology Inc NASDAQ:MU, according to the report.
Memory makers are cashing in on tight supply, but Apple faces higher input costs. Samsung is guiding for a 19-fold surge in Q2 operating profit to 89.4 trillion won. Shares dropped 6.9% as investors worry about how long AI-driven memory demand stays strong. According to Citi Research, quoted by Reuters, average DRAM prices jumped 44% and NAND climbed 53% quarter over quarter in Q2.
For now, Apple’s foldable phone is more of a pricing experiment than a bet on unit growth. Nikkei Asia, via Mobile World Live, said Apple asked suppliers to get ready for 10 million foldable iPhones this year, versus a previous range of 7 million to 8 million. The company has components lined up for about 80 million smartphones across new models hitting in the second half of 2026.
Jefferies analyst Edison Lee kept his Hold on Apple and left the target at $299.88. Lee said Apple got a short-term lift from post-618 discounts in China and strong trade-in offers, but doubts that pace will last. The firm says the stock could stay “range-bound.” TipRanks
Kuo said it will be easier to see “true demand” for the product in late 2026 or in the first quarter of 2027, once the early launch spike calms down and supply catches up.
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