NEW YORK, July 17, 2026, 14:11 EDT
AT&T Inc. NYSE:T reversed an initial 3.5% rise on Friday. The stock was 1.0% lower at $21.76 in New York trading. The company is scheduled to announce quarterly earnings on Wednesday.
At the midpoint of management’s second-quarter guidance, free cash flow for the first half would reach $6.75 billion. AT&T would require $11.25 billion in the latter half to meet its target. This amount accounts for 62.5% of the company’s $18 billion minimum for the full year.
The challenge appears greater when compared with last year’s cash flow. The second-half requirement is roughly 24% higher than 2025’s $9.1 billion.
The target holds greater significance at Friday’s valuation. Its $18 billion minimum suggests a free-cash-flow yield of 11.8%. The yearly dividend offers a 5.1% yield, and intended buybacks equate to 5.2% of the equity value. These numbers are not projected returns.
| AT&T 2026 free cash flow breakdown, $ billion | Low Q2 scenario | High Q2 scenario |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 reported | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Q2 company outlook | 4.0 | 4.5 |
| First-half sum | 6.5 | 7.0 |
| Second-half required for $18 billion | 11.5 | 11.0 |
| Second-half as portion of annual target | 63.9% | 61.1% |
| 2025 second-half achieved | 9.1 | 9.1 |
| Needed increase compared to 2025 | 26.4% | 20.9% |
First-half, second-half, and growth values are derived from company figures.
If cash flow lands at the midpoint, it will lag last year’s $4.4 billion by 3.4% in the second quarter. The gap needs to be narrowed in the second half.
CFO Pascal Desroches described the first quarter as “always seasonally low” in terms of cash flow, pointing to incentive payouts, holiday device payments and increased capital expenditures. Management anticipates this typical seasonal trend to persist. AT&T Investor Relations
Analysts’ initial forecasts project adjusted earnings at $0.59 per share, with expected revenue of $31.8 billion. This would represent growth of 9.3% and 3.3% respectively compared to a year earlier.
Options data compiled by Bloomberg indicate an expected earnings move of 4.3%. AT&T surpassed the implied move on two occasions out of its last eight results, while the other six reports saw less volatility.
The market pulled back broadly on Friday, reversing earlier gains. The S&P 500 dipped 0.7% by midday. Communication services declined 2.4%.
Shares of Verizon Communications Inc. NYSE:VZ slipped 1.0% on Friday, while T-Mobile US Inc. NASDAQ:TMUS declined 0.8%.
AT&T began the quarter with an increase of 294,000 postpaid phone users. The phone churn rate stood at 0.89%. The company also gained 584,000 new advanced-connectivity internet customers.
Roughly 42% of households with AT&T home internet also subscribed to AT&T wireless services. The figure climbed to nearly 45% when excluding customers gained through fiber acquisitions. The company’s fiber network covered over 37 million locations.
The risks are evident. Increased customer turnover or greater investment in networks may put pressure on cash conversion. Executives forecast leverage approaching 3.2 times following the completion of an upcoming spectrum transaction.
AT&T is scheduled to release results ahead of the opening bell on Wednesday, with the earnings call set for 08:30 EDT. An adjustment to the $18 billion minimum would alter the cash-return calculation.
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