NEW YORK, March 13, 2026, 15:31 EDT
Bank of America (BAC) slipped 0.4% to $46.95 Friday afternoon, underperforming JPMorgan and Citigroup, which both edged higher, and landing close to the more muted moves in Wells Fargo.
Here’s why it’s relevant: Washington is moving toward looser capital rules for large banks, which might open up cash for lending and share buybacks down the line. Still, with oil hovering close to $100 and the Fed looking less likely to cut rates soon, investors remain fixated on inflation and credit risk. Reuters
Conditions have deteriorated quickly. The S&P 500 financial sector has slipped 3.3% so far this week. Crude prices, meanwhile, jumped to their highest mark since 2022, with turmoil near the Strait of Hormuz putting at risk a passage that handles over 20% of the world’s oil shipments. Reuters
The United States is in the process of revising Basel rules—the framework that dictates how much capital major banks need to set aside for potential losses. Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman described the latest draft as trimming large-bank requirements by a “small amount.” She also warned that “when capital requirements become excessive, they impair the banking system’s fundamental function of providing credit to the real economy.” Reuters
For Bank of America, this hits close to home. The extra GSIB surcharge covers eight major U.S. banks labeled systemically important, and Reuters noted earlier this week that under the new package, capital at the largest Wall Street firms might end up flat or even a touch lower, potentially paving the way for increased lending and buybacks—if the proposal goes through. Reuters
Friday’s U.S. data landed without offering banks much relief. The Fed’s go-to inflation measure, core PCE, turned out cooler than some had braced for, but fourth-quarter GDP growth got knocked back to 0.7%. “The effects of skyrocketing energy prices are just starting,” said James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Ocean Park Asset Management. Reuters
Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital, didn’t mince words: “Tell me what oil prices will do today and I will tell you what stocks will do today.” Barclays pushed back its expected timeline for the Fed’s first rate cut this year to September instead of June on Friday, matching Goldman Sachs—evidence the rate outlook for banks keeps moving against them. Reuters
Still, that regulatory boost might not stick. The Fed needs to vote, there’s a public comment period ahead, and hammering out a final version could drag on for months. Senator Elizabeth Warren and other opponents argue that easing capital requirements would erode protections just when risks from geopolitical turmoil and mounting pressures in private credit are on the rise. Reuters
BAC finds itself caught in the middle. Eased capital rules could offer a lift, but the drag from oil, inflation, and credit worries doesn’t let up. Unless those big-picture risks recede, Bank of America’s shares might not get much out of the policy shift. Reuters
