NEW YORK, July 7, 2026, 04:22 EDT
- Bitcoin was near $63,086 just ahead of the New York open, while Strategy Inc NASDAQ:MSTR traded at $100.77 in early U.S. hours.
- Strategy unloaded 3,588 BTC for $216 million last week and reported holdings of 843,775 BTC as of July 5.
- Bernstein’s flows show 2026 bitcoin treasury and ETF inflows at $10 billion, well below $60 billion for 2025. Spot bitcoin ETFs are off $5.5 billion this year.
Bitcoin’s soft spot this week isn’t the ETF trade. It’s the balance sheet at Strategy Inc NASDAQ:MSTR, which has been the biggest public buyer and now looks like a possible seller.
Strategy told the SEC it sold 1,363 BTC for $80.8 million between June 29 and June 30, and then another 2,225 BTC for $135.2 million from July 1 through July 5. The cash went into preferred-stock payouts and helped rebuild its dollar reserve. The company reported its reserve at $2.55 billion and said none of the $1.25 billion available under its BTC monetization program has been used.
The sale was minor compared to the total. It made up 0.42% of Strategy’s holdings before the deal. Now bitcoin holders have to watch for more BTC getting sold if cash coverage slips.
| Strategy BTC and cash metric | Latest figure | Investor read |
|---|---|---|
| BTC sold, June 29-July 5 | 3,588 BTC / $216 million | 0.42% of pre-sale stash |
| BTC held after sale | 843,775 BTC | 4.02% of bitcoin’s total supply cap |
| Average purchase price vs spot | $75,476 vs about $63,086 | Down about 16.4% from average cost |
| Market value of BTC stack at spot | About $53.2 billion | Roughly $10.5 billion below total cost |
| USD reserve | $2.55 billion | Set aside for dividends and interest |
| Remaining BTC monetization capacity | Up to $1.25 billion | Equivalent to about 19,800 BTC at spot, or 2.35% of stack |
Bernstein analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, are still backing the bull case. They note bitcoin’s drawdown is around 54% from its cycle high after the latest test near $60,000, which they say is less severe than the 75% to 90% drops from previous cycles. “It is unclear if we are completely out of the woods,” the analysts wrote. Still, they said the current bear market has been “milder than the previous drawdown.” Investing.com South Africa
Cleaner investor flow data shows Treasury firms and ETFs pulled in $10 billion in 2026, which is 83% less than 2025. Spot bitcoin ETFs saw $5.5 billion in outflows on $74 billion in assets. One corporate buyer picked up around 175,000 BTC for $14 billion this year—more gross buying than the entire channel’s net numbers.
| Flow channel | 2025 | 2026 | Investor read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Treasury companies plus ETFs | $60 billion inflow | $10 billion inflow | Still positive net demand, just smaller |
| Spot bitcoin ETFs | Not stated | $5.5 billion outflow vs $74 billion base | That’s a 7.4% outflow |
| Strategy gross BTC buying | Not stated | $14 billion / 175,000 BTC | That is 140% of total net treasury-plus-ETF inflow |
| Strategy latest BTC sale | None in this period | $216 million | 2.2% of the 2026 net inflow |
| Strategy unused sale capacity | Not applicable | $1.25 billion | 12.5% of 2026 net inflow |
The sale is important for this reason. ETF redemptions have seemed negative, but corporate treasury buying has helped balance them out. If those treasury buyers start to sell as well, that buffer goes away. JPMorgan Chase NYSE:JPM analysts said Strategy’s formal sale policy adds “avoidable two-way risk” with the company now able to both buy and sell. The Block
Zach Pandl at Grayscale had a different take. He thinks the latest Strategy moves “should restore market confidence” in how the company is financing itself, and might allow bitcoin to set a “more durable bottom.” The trade-off is clear: if Strategy dumps bitcoin early and keeps more cash, forced sale risk goes down, but now the market sees a defined corporate seller above spot. BeInCrypto
Chhugani’s team said a big forced sale by Strategy is unlikely, adding the company is still “a net buyer.” Bernstein kept its $150,000 bitcoin target for year-end, but called it “ambitious” after the pullback and said it was tracking flows for “any signs of life.” Investing.com South Africa
Retail-focused analysts are sticking with bitcoin over other tokens. Dominic Basulto at The Motley Fool said he’d choose bitcoin if he had to pick a single crypto, pointing to its history of comebacks and institutional interest. Still, this cuts both ways—buyers lean bitcoin, but the big investors in focus now are those with dividend obligations.
Strategy shares are getting mixed calls from brokers. Benchmark is staying at Buy with a $570 target after Strategy rolled out its new digital credit framework. TD Cowen slashed its price target to $260 from $400, pointing to its lower forecast for bitcoin. Heading into the open, Strategy had a market value of around $33.65 billion. That’s up against about $53.2 billion worth of bitcoin at spot, before taking out preferred stock, debt, taxes or operating value.
Bernstein says U.S.-listed miners are now net sellers as they push more capital into AI data-center projects. Network hash rate is down about 11% so far this year, and U.S. miners’ share of the global hash rate fell again in the last two quarters. That puts the bitcoin market more at risk if Strategy leaves its $1.25 billion sale capacity unused with the token trading below average cost.
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