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February 1, 2026, 2:08 AM EST. Carlyle Group's recent share price hit US$58.78, down 4.1% last week and 3.4% over the month, reflecting shifting investor sentiment. The private equity giant scores just 1 out of 6 on valuation checks, suggesting it is overvalued by about 151% based on an Excess Returns model. This model, which measures profit relative to shareholder-required returns, estimates an intrinsic value near US$23.40 per share-well below current market levels. While Carlyle's exposure to private markets can cause volatility, its high price-to-earnings ratio implies elevated growth expectations that may not align with fundamentals. Investors assessing upside should weigh these valuation signals carefully against the asset manager's growth outlook and risk profile.