2026 stock market forecast: After 2025’s rally, Wall Street sees earnings, Fed cuts and AI spending as the big tests
The S&P 500 closed 2025 at 6,845.50, up 16.39% for the year, as Nvidia became the first company to reach a $5 trillion market value. Strategists say 2026 gains depend on profit growth broadening beyond megacap tech and on AI spending delivering returns. Rate policy and Fed uncertainty are expected to drive early-year volatility.