Vanguard’s Grim 10‑Year Forecast Puts the 4% Retirement Rule at Risk — What Retirees Should Do Now
Vanguard projects U.S. stocks will return 2.8%–4.8% annually over the next decade, below expected bond returns of 4.3%–5.3%. A MarketWatch column warns that a prolonged period of low stock returns could threaten retirees relying on the 4% withdrawal rule. About 11,400 Americans turn 65 each day in 2025, the peak of the baby-boomer retirement wave.