New York, March 3, 2026, 5:16 PM EST — Trading after the bell.
- Shares rose as much as $104.30 before pulling back; last up 3.6% at $99.63
- Mizuho bumped its Circle price target up to $100, pointing to dwindling chances of the Fed cutting rates anytime soon.
- CFO Jeremy Fox-Geen filed a Form 144, signaling a modest planned sale under Rule 144.
Circle Internet Group (CRCL) climbed 3.6% to $99.63 in after-hours trading on Tuesday, building on a two-day rally that followed Mizuho’s price target hike for the stablecoin issuer. Earlier in the session, shares reached as high as $104.30. Volume was hefty—roughly 33 million shares changed hands.
Circle is the company behind USD Coin, or USDC, a stablecoin pegged one-to-one with the U.S. dollar. Cash backing the tokens goes mostly into short-term Treasuries and deposits. That means Circle’s profits shift with U.S. interest rates.
Traders are once again watching that link, trying to gauge if the Federal Reserve is positioned to cut rates soon. Oil prices, meanwhile, are climbing as Middle East tensions persist.
Dan Dolev at Mizuho Securities bumped his price target up to $100 from $90 but stuck with a neutral call, warning that oil-driven inflation could delay rate cuts. “Rising oil prices could drive up inflation, lowering the odds of rate cuts,” Dolev said. TheStreet
Circle shares surged 15.2% Monday, pushing its post-earnings rally further and cementing the stock’s reputation as a go-to gauge for rates and crypto moves among traders. Gains cooled off late Tuesday, though Circle still closed the session above water. Investing.com
Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Fox-Geen signaled plans to offload 4,238 Class A shares, according to a Form 144 filed Tuesday, the shares linked to a March 1 restricted stock vesting. The same document pointed to earlier transactions: Fox-Geen sold 47,908 shares on Feb. 26, then another 7,200 on March 2. The filing cited a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan, put into place in August 2025. Form 144 serves as advance notice for company insiders aiming to sell stock under SEC Rule 144, which governs the resale of certain securities. StreetInsider.com
Circle’s most recent moves follow last week’s earnings surprise, as the company topped Wall Street estimates thanks to a 72% surge in USDC circulation, now at $75.3 billion, and $733 million in reserve income. “The key takeaway is that USDC continues scaling rapidly,” Seaport Research Partners analyst Jeff Cantwell said at the time. CEO Jeremy Allaire told Reuters he’d “welcome” additional rate cuts, even though higher rates pad reserve income. Reuters
Circle puts its stablecoin reserves into short-term government debt and cash, pocketing the yield—so it stands to gain when policy remains tight. That setup also lets the stock sometimes move in line with short-term rates, especially on quieter crypto news days.
But when markets swing risk-off, crypto activity tends to get squeezed, and demand for stablecoins often drops. Circle is also up against rival dollar-backed tokens and payments companies moving further into blockchain settlement.
Still, the trade can unwind fast. If oil prices tumble or softer U.S. numbers push up hopes for earlier rate cuts, Circle’s reserve income outlook takes a hit. More insider selling could also dump extra supply onto shares that have already surged in little time.
Focus shifts now to fresh U.S. numbers and what’s next out of the Fed. Traders are keyed in on Friday’s jobs data (March 6), then the CPI for February coming March 11. All eyes, of course, on the Fed’s policy meeting set for March 17–18. Bureau of Labor Statistics
