New York, May 11, 2026, 06:03 EDT
- Circle plans to release its first-quarter numbers Monday, followed by an 8 a.m. ET webcast to go over the results, according to the company.
- Just days ahead of the Senate Banking Committee’s review of a crypto market-structure bill—legislation with the potential to reshape stablecoin rewards and payments—the update arrives.
- Analysts at FactSet, quoted by Barron’s, are projecting earnings of 19 cents per share and $715 million in revenue.
Circle Internet Group will release its first-quarter numbers ahead of Monday’s opening bell, drawing investor attention as lawmakers in Washington gear up for another round of crypto regulation talks. The company issues USDC, a stablecoin pegged to the U.S. dollar.
Timing is key here. On May 14, the Senate Banking Committee is set to take up the Clarity Act—a bill aimed at clarifying which U.S. agencies regulate pieces of the crypto space. According to Reuters, there’s a compromise in the works: the bill would block customer rewards for simply holding idle stablecoins, but still permit rewards linked to uses like payments.
For Circle, that’s a key line—the company’s pitch depends on convincing markets USDC can do more than just facilitate trading. Sure, payments, business applications, and developer interest are in the mix, but investors keep their eyes on the basics: total USDC circulating, reserve income, and the share Circle holds onto.
Circle topped fourth-quarter revenue forecasts back in February, fueled by a 72% jump in USDC circulation to $75.3 billion year-over-year. Reserve income for the quarter landed at $733 million. Combined total revenue and reserve income climbed 77% to $770 million, beating analyst estimates of $739 million, based on LSEG data referenced by Reuters.
Investors want to see if that momentum carried over into the first quarter. According to Barron’s, which cites FactSet, analysts are looking for Circle to post $715 million in revenue—up from $579 million in the same period last year—and earnings of 19 cents a share. The stock has climbed almost 40% so far this year, reaching roughly $111, though it’s a long way from its $298.99 post-IPO high.
Jeff Cantwell at Seaport Research Partners, reacting to Circle’s earlier report, called out “USDC continues scaling rapidly.” Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire, in comments to Reuters, pointed to lower interest rates as a possible boost for adoption, although he acknowledged Circle’s reserve earnings are tied to Federal Reserve decisions, since the firm puts stablecoin reserves into deposits and short-term U.S. Treasuries. Reuters
No shortage of rivals here. Tether’s USDT is still the heavyweight, with a market size Reuters Breakingviews pegs at roughly $184 billion—over twice what USDC could claim earlier this year. The USDC story also pulls in Coinbase, which partners on the coin and sits in the same camp when it comes to regulatory risk.
Circle has been working to convince regulators it can play by the book. Just last week, the company announced Circle France received a green light from France’s AMF under the EU’s MiCA crypto rules, clearing the way for custody and transfer of USDC and EURC throughout the European Economic Area. “Working within European regulatory frameworks” is a priority, according to Dante Disparte, the company’s chief strategy officer. Circle
Another angle that could come up on the call: artificial intelligence payments. Barron’s recently flagged a shift—investors are starting to see Circle as tied to the AI theme. Back in April, Circle’s technology chief, Nikhil Chandhok, noted that USDC and its associated tools could handle ultra-small, machine-to-machine payments, even for amounts less than a cent.
Yet the downside scenario remains straightforward enough. Compass Point’s Ed Engel downgraded Circle to “sell” back in April, flagging the risk that first-quarter earnings might come up short if USDC expansion relied too much on thinner-margin distribution. And the Clarity Act isn’t through yet—it still faces a Senate hurdle, with Reuters noting at least seven Democrats would have to sign on for passage. Invezz
Circle’s Monday report isn’t really about just one quarter. The bigger story is what kind of business Circle wants to be. A solid set of numbers could make the case that USDC is carving out a larger role in payments and financial plumbing. If the company falls short, though, it’s likely to fuel doubts: Is Circle a true high-growth fintech, or just another rate-sensitive financial outfit wrapped in crypto branding?
