NEW YORK, Sept. 6, 2026, 2:39 p.m. EDT — Circle Internet Group (NYSE:CRCL) ended Friday at $102.05, up 61% since its Aug. 5 earnings release. Fresh USDC issuance helps explain the optimism, but the rate arithmetic remains demanding.
Circle’s own weekly disclosure showed $74.33 billion of USDC in circulation on Sept. 3. It issued $11.02 billion and redeemed $10.41 billion over seven days, leaving a net gain of about $610 million.
That is useful growth. It is not yet enough to neutralize a large interest-rate cut. The distinction matters because reserve income supplied 95% of Circle’s second-quarter revenue.
CRCL climbed 61% after second-quarter results
. Unadjusted closes from published market data; return calculated by TS2.
The official supply figure was already 1.4% above June’s $73.27 billion quarter-end balance. Independent chain data placed current supply near $74.71 billion on Sunday, after weekend flows.
$21.43 billion moved through mint and redemption
Mint, redemption and current circulation come from Circle’s Sept. 3 reserve disclosure. June figures come from the company’s 10-Q.
The harder comparison sits in Circle’s interest-rate sensitivity model. A 100-basis-point decline from June’s 3.49% average yield would reduce annual reserve income by an estimated $737 million.
Lower distribution and transaction costs would recover about $360 million. The modeled net hit, before operating expenses and taxes, is therefore roughly $377 million.
One percentage point lower costs about $377 million after relief
The $737 million and $360 million figures are Circle estimates at flat June supply. The $21 million and 2.9% figures are TS2 calculations, not company guidance.
Put differently, the latest $610 million net mint would earn about $21 million annually at a 3.5% reserve return. That equals less than 3% of the modeled gross loss from a one-point rate decline.
Circle itself warns against a mechanical forecast. The company says “the relationship between interest rates and USDC in circulation is complex, highly uncertain, and unproven.” A rate cut could also make a non-yielding digital dollar relatively less costly to hold.
Second-quarter economics show why both variables matter. Reserve income was $667.7 million. Total revenue and reserve income reached $701.3 million, while distribution, transaction and other costs consumed $412.5 million.
Revenue less those costs was $288.8 million. Adjusted EBITDA reached $143 million. Circle also reported $48 million of net income from continuing operations in its quarterly release.
The Street remains unusually divided. Morgan Stanley analyst James Faucette cut Circle to Underweight with a $38 target in August, citing reserve-income sensitivity and competition. Bernstein’s Gautam Chhugani later kept an Outperform rating and a $140 target, arguing that USDC had entered a new growth cycle.
Published targets span $38 to $140
Ratings and targets are snapshots, not forecasts by TS2. Morgan Stanley’s call was reported Aug. 3; the later Bernstein and Susquehanna views were reported Aug. 24.
Circle’s Sept. 16 public launch of Arc offers a second route. The network is designed for stablecoin payments, foreign exchange and capital markets. Yet transaction-led products remain a small share of revenue today.
Execution risks are substantial. USDC supply can reverse quickly, competitors can pay more for distribution, regulators can alter product economics, and Arc adoption may take longer than its launch date implies.
Investors now have two clean checkpoints. Weekly net issuance must persist, and Arc must begin producing revenue that does not depend on Treasury yields. One strong minting week is evidence. It is not the whole answer.
