NEW YORK, July 25, 2026, 12:09 EDT — U.S. markets ended the session.
- Coinbase Global NASDAQ:COIN rose 0.7% over the week, but dropped 10.0% compared to Tuesday’s closing level.
- Analysts now project a preliminary Q2 loss of 41 cents per share, compared to forecasts three months earlier that anticipated a profit of 62 cents per share.
- Options are pricing in a 7.3% swing for earnings. Coinbase will release results after the market closes on Thursday.
Coinbase ended Friday’s session at $158.29, marking a 0.7% increase compared to the previous week. The slight advance masked a volatile week driven by policy shifts.
Shares rose 9.6% on Tuesday following the Clarity Act’s passage of a significant milestone. The stock ended the session at $175.85, while Bitcoin gained as well.
The advance was short-lived. Coinbase declined in each of the following three sessions, dropping 10.0% from Tuesday’s closing level.
Bitcoin traded around $64,100 on Saturday, showing minimal movement compared to the previous week. In contrast, volatility was much greater for Coinbase.
The gap highlights the next challenge for investors. Thursday’s results need to demonstrate that ongoing revenue is able to offset softness in spot trading.
Stablecoin revenue contributed $305 million in the first quarter, accounting for 52% of the company’s subscription and services revenue, according to company data. This represented approximately 22% of total revenue.
The Senate bill addresses a key component of Coinbase’s revenue, proposing a prohibition on rewards for inactive stablecoin balances but permitting rewards linked to transactions. The measure still requires backing from at least eight Democratic senators.
USDC holdings play a role in this context. Coinbase reported an average of $19 billion in USDC held across its products throughout Q1. According to the company, these balances contributed to stablecoin revenue.
Policy expectations increased. In contrast, earnings expectations declined.
| Investor marker | Earlier reading | Latest reading | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coinbase closing price | $175.85 Tuesday | $158.29 Friday | -10.0% |
| Preliminary Q2 EPS consensus | $0.62 profit three months ago | $0.41 loss | -$1.03 a share |
| Preliminary 2026 EPS consensus | $2.98 profit three months ago | $0.24 loss | -$3.22 a share |
| Citigroup NYSE:C price target | $400 | $235 | -41.3% |
Trading volume on Tuesday hit 13.7 million shares, representing 1.6 times the 65-day average. In the following sessions, volume decreased as the stock pulled back.
Citigroup’s Peter Christiansen maintained a Buy recommendation, though he reduced his price target. In his note, he referred to subscriptions and services as “durable earnings support.” Christiansen also noted that Q2 spot volume reached its lowest point in two years. TipRanks
The updated target is still 48% higher than Friday’s closing price. However, the reduction highlights the significant drop in short-term expectations.
Coinbase generated $756 million in transaction revenue for Q1. Subscription and service revenues reached $584 million, and the firm recorded a net loss of $394 million.
Coinbase forecasted subscription and services revenue of $565 million to $645 million for Q2. The company also anticipates incurring a restructuring charge between $50 million and $60 million.
Options are pricing in a post-earnings range of about $146.73-$169.85 from Friday’s close. The stock’s actual movement has surpassed implied volatility in five of the last eight earnings reports.
Results are due following the market close on Thursday. Investors are set to focus on transaction revenue, USDC balances and operating expenses in relation to the updated outlook.
Risks: Bitcoin trading continues over weekends, while Coinbase shares halt. If the Senate experiences a setback or trading volumes fall, this could weigh on Monday’s open. Conversely, higher USDC balances or reduced expenses might lead to gains.
Coinbase starts the week higher than its closing level on Friday, though it remains well under Tuesday’s high. The upcoming earnings report will determine if the recent policy-driven rise holds.
Related articles: NASDAQ:COIN
