New York, July 13, 2026, 13:06 EDT
Walmart Inc. NASDAQ:WMT traded up 0.6% at $114.60 on Monday afternoon, for a market cap near $916.7 billion. A fresh discounted cash flow, or DCF, estimate now values the stock at $34.35 a share. With about 8 billion shares out there, that leaves a valuation gap of around $642 billion.
The split is key because investors want more than just a supermarket here. They’re buying into ads, memberships, marketplace fees, and automated fulfillment to drive profit faster than sales. That’s the main challenge for a stock at 40.2 times trailing earnings.
Walmart’s own forecast for its second quarter is tough. It’s calling for net sales growth of 4% to 5% and operating income up 7% to 10% in constant currency, so profit has to climb faster than revenue by 2 to 6 percentage points. That’s operating leverage. First quarter was the opposite: revenue was up 7.3%, but operating income increased just 5%. Higher fuel costs cut about 250 basis points, or 2.5 percentage points, off operating-income growth. CEO John Furner said the higher-margin commerce plan is a “disciplined approach” aimed at “strengthen[ing] returns.” Walmart Inc.
Shift in mix shows up in Walmart’s numbers. Global e-commerce sales climbed 26% in Q1, global ad revenue up 37%, and Walmart Connect U.S. rose 44% if Vizio is out. Membership-fee income worldwide added 17.4%. But free cash flow came in negative at $1.9 billion after capital spending. The push hasn’t gotten consistent yet.
So there’s still one stock with four very different valuations. Yahoo Finance has an analyst consensus price of $138.59, a premium of around 21% to the current price. GuruFocus shows a historical multiple of $94.32, with its earnings and free-cash-flow models coming in much lower.
| Valuation reference | Per share | Implied equity value | Difference from $114.60 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current market | $114.60 | $916.7 billion | — |
| Analyst consensus | $138.59 | $1.109 trillion | +20.9% |
| GuruFocus GF Value | $94.32 | $754.5 billion | -17.7% |
| Earnings-based DCF | $34.35 | $274.8 billion | -70.0% |
| Free-cash-flow DCF | $18.07 | $144.5 billion | -84.2% |
Implied values are based on about 8 billion shares and rounded.
The peer group signals how the market is betting on the sector. Costco Wholesale Corp. NASDAQ:COST trades at a higher earnings multiple. Amazon.com Inc. NASDAQ:AMZN and Target Corp. NYSE:TGT shares are cheaper than Walmart on that basis.
| Company | Share price | Market value | Trailing P/E | Earnings yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walmart | $114.60 | $916.7 billion | 40.2x | 2.5% |
| Costco | $924.31 | $410.8 billion | 46.5x | 2.2% |
| Amazon | $247.73 | $2.69 trillion | 29.6x | 3.4% |
| Target | $134.97 | $61.5 billion | 17.8x | 5.6% |
Walmart offers a 2.5% earnings yield, which flips its P/E ratio. That’s 2.1 points under the 4.58% yield on 10-year Treasurys used in the GuruFocus setup. Investors here are taking less yield than Treasurys, betting on quicker profit growth. Costco’s gamble is bigger. Target doesn’t ask for this kind of bet.
Jim Cramer sided with bulls, calling Walmart’s drop “an incredible buying opportunity.” He called the retailer “one of the greatest companies on earth.” Walmart cut prices last week on thousands of goods, like ground beef down 12%, cherries cut by about 50%, and branded 24-pack sodas slashed up to a third. Julie Barber, Walmart U.S. chief merchant, said the company is making “even more investments in price.” Yahoo Finance
The $34 figure isn’t a normal sell-side target. GuruFocus put the model’s predictability at just one out of five and flagged big swings tied to growth and discount assumptions. Bulls face a clearer risk: if shelf prices drop, store traffic may go up but merchandise margins get hit, and higher fuel, wages, and delivery bills all stand in the way of the 7%-10% operating income growth Walmart is aiming for.
Walmart CFO John David Rainey said in May the company plans to “play offense despite the short-term pressure on profits.” The next look at numbers comes August 20 when Walmart posts fiscal Q2. Investors are focused on the gap between operating income and revenue growth, more than sales. That spread is the clearest comparison between the $34 model and Wall Street’s $139 price target. The Motley Fool
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