New York, Feb 16, 2026, 12:10 EST — The market has closed.
With U.S. markets shuttered Monday for Presidents Day, Dow watchers had some breathing room to process the recent softer inflation reading and brace for a compressed slate of catalysts ahead, with trading set to pick back up Tuesday.
Friday saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average inch up by 48.95 points, a 0.1% gain to close at 49,500.93. The Nasdaq slipped, with traders eyeing new warnings about artificial intelligence reshaping segments of the tech sector. “It is a bit of good news as we head into the long holiday weekend,” Orion’s chief investment officer Tim Holland said. Reuters
Consumer prices in the U.S. climbed 2.4% over the year ending in January, slipping from December’s 2.7% pace, according to the Labor Department. Stripping out food and energy, core CPI ticked up 0.3% for the month and posted a 2.5% annual gain.
The Federal Reserve kept its main interest rate unchanged after its late-January meeting, maintaining the federal funds target range at 3.5% to 3.75%. Now, traders are picking through Fed statements for any signs of how long policymakers might hold steady if inflation continues its downward trend.
The S&P 500 closed just 0.05% higher on Friday, while the Dow slipped 1.23% and the Nasdaq dropped 2.1% for the week—leaving all three major indexes in the red over that stretch. “Large cap tech stocks continue to be an anchor on the market,” said Michael James, managing director of equity trading at Rosenblatt Securities. Reuters
AI has turned into the market’s unpredictable headline-maker, sending jolts through sectors far wider than just semis or software. “It’s all this whack-a-mole game,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth. Investors are left trying to figure out what the technology “is going to destroy next.” Reuters
With U.S. cash markets closed, stock index futures kept moving, though global trading remained quiet in these thin holiday conditions. Futures now point to a 68% probability of a Fed rate cut in June, with roughly 62 basis points of easing baked in for the year—a basis point equals 0.01 percentage point. Investors, meanwhile, are watching the ramp-up in AI-focused capex plans and how those might ripple through to buybacks.
Inflation isn’t exactly moving in a single direction. Josh Jamner, senior investment strategy analyst with ClearBridge Investments, flagged “price pressures percolating beneath the surface” as a risk that could dampen market sentiment. He highlighted a January spike in “supercore” services inflation, stripping out shelter. Reuters
The calendar’s already loaded: the Fed holds its policy meeting Jan. 27–28, with minutes expected roughly three weeks after, landing midweek. Friday packs a double release at 8:30 a.m. EST — the first look at Q4 GDP, plus the Personal Income and Outlays report, which folds in the PCE price index.
The University of Michigan will release its final February consumer sentiment numbers at 10 a.m. ET on Friday, giving markets another read on whether households are reacting to prices and rates.
Walmart is set to deliver its latest results Thursday, putting consumer staples in the spotlight. The Dow component drops its materials at 6 a.m. CT, with execs fielding questions an hour later on the 7 a.m. CT call. Traders, after weeks of whipsawing on AI headlines, are refocusing on demand signals and any guidance Walmart is ready to give.
