NEW YORK, March 30, 2026, 13:07 EDT
On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped over 300 points, recovering a portion of last week’s decline after President Donald Trump announced the U.S. was engaged in “serious discussions” to resolve the dispute with Iran. This uptick landed despite an escalation in fighting over the weekend. Reuters
The rebound takes on significance after Friday’s rout dragged the Dow down 10% from its Feb. 10 record close, pushing it into correction territory. Brent crude sticking close to $113 a barrel and U.S. crude holding above $101 added to the pressure. Investors sizing up this week’s March payrolls and labor figures are left weighing whether the U.S. economy is ready for another energy jolt.
At 11:31 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 324.12 points, or 0.72%, to 45,491.47. The S&P 500 advanced 0.31%. The Nasdaq Composite was just barely positive, edging up 0.05%.
Energy and banks carried most of the weight, with the S&P 500 energy index tacking on 0.9% as shares of Exxon Mobil and Chevron moved higher. Financials outpaced, up 1.7%, after the Labor Department floated new rules aimed at clarifying how 401(k) plans might include alternative assets like private equity or crypto. That news gave a boost to Blackstone, KKR, and Apollo Global Management.
Tech stocks struggled. Apple and Broadcom pulled the market lower, with the semiconductor index falling to a three-month trough and holding back gains in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said longer-term inflation expectations are still anchored, even with the energy shock, and the Fed hasn’t reached a decision on its response yet. Traders in short-term rates have flipped; they’re no longer pricing in any Fed cuts for this year. That’s a notable shift from the two rate reductions markets had penciled in before the conflict erupted.
Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth, said investors were chasing after any “potential positive catalyst” in the wake of sharp losses. For Eren Osman, managing director of wealth management at Arbuthnot Latham, oil is “the lightning rod right now.” He pointed to the Strait of Hormuz — handling around a fifth of global oil and LNG — as crucial, saying any reopening would go a long way toward settling nerves. Reuters
Morgan Stanley dialed back its optimism, moving global equities down to equal-weight from overweight. In other words, analysts no longer favor holding extra stocks compared to the benchmark. The bank shifted its preference toward cash and U.S. Treasuries, bumping both up to overweight. If oil prices stay between $150 and $180, Morgan Stanley says global equity valuations could take a nearly 25% hit—though U.S. assets might weather that storm better than Europe or Japan.
The rebound didn’t inspire much confidence. Bruce Kasman at JPMorgan warned that if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed for another month, oil could spike “towards $150 a barrel,” a jolt strong enough to reignite recession worries and potentially erase Monday’s advance once labor numbers hit later this week. Reuters
The shift has been abrupt. The Dow’s first finish above 50,000 came on Feb. 6, but even with Monday’s uptick, the index remains well under the Feb. 10 high—Friday’s selloff dragged it into correction territory. The quick reversal shows just how rapidly sentiment on Wall Street has swung since early February.
