NEW YORK, March 17, 2026, 13:10 EDT.
On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average pushed higher, staying north of 47,000 as traders watched for the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement and shrugged off another jump in oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict. The index added 125.40 points, or 0.27%, to finish at 47,071.81 based on delayed Reuters/LSEG figures. The S&P 500 moved up 0.36%, and the Nasdaq tacked on 0.41%.
The Dow is looking to build on Monday’s 0.83% bounce after last week’s oil-fueled slide. Traders, meanwhile, are dialing down bets on Fed rate cuts—a move that can hit both valuations and borrowing costs in a hurry.
Traders are betting on just one quarter-point rate cut by year-end—a sharp drop from earlier expectations, as the conflict has amplified supply worries. Brent hovered at $101.53 a barrel, with U.S. crude not far behind at $94.71. Both prices are high enough to keep inflation pressure simmering, right as the Fed kicks off its two-day meeting, widely expected to wrap on Wednesday with rates left steady.
Travel, financial, and energy shares set the pace. Delta Air Lines and American Airlines bumped up their revenue outlooks for the current quarter—momentum that filtered through to both airlines and cruise stocks. Blackstone, Apollo, KKR, Occidental, EQT, and ConocoPhillips also climbed.
Dennis Dick, founder at Triple D Trading, sees inflation fears fading for both consumers and the market. “Investors are starting to see the forest through the trees,” he said. Still, Peter Andersen of Andersen Capital Management flagged uncertainty from the conflict, calling it “too many moving parts” for the Fed to get a clear read on the economy. Reuters
Monday delivered a bigger, quicker rebound. The Dow closed at 46,946.41, while the S&P 500 notched its largest single-session jump in over a month. The Nasdaq added 1.22% as investors pivoted back to AI-centric stocks—momentum fueled by Nvidia’s developer gathering and news that Meta was lining up substantial job cuts.
Even so, markets aren’t seeing a runaway risk surge. Oil-linked stocks are hanging out there, still vulnerable, and the S&P 500 trades roughly 2% under where it stood before the conflict—even as certain crash-hedge metrics have pulled back.
Scott Nations at Nations Indexes noted that traders’ concern over a potential “tail event”—that’s the market’s shorthand for a big, sudden drop—had eased. Christopher Jacobson, a strategist at Susquehanna, pointed out that demand for downside hedges had “faded” somewhat. Still, he added, investors weren’t piling into bets on a fast recovery just yet. Reuters
There’s a chance fresh gains in oil or a more hawkish tone from the Fed could send the Dow sliding once more. Roughly a fifth of global oil and LNG passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and with fresh strikes on UAE energy infrastructure, the country has already slashed output by more than 50%.
Wednesday brings the next hurdle, as traders dissect the Fed’s statement and listen for signals from Chair Jerome Powell on how the committee is weighing higher energy prices against a cooling labor market. Right now, the Dow is edging up, but there’s a note of caution in the movement.
