NEW YORK, March 17, 2026, 14:48 EDT
Gold hovered close to $5,000 Tuesday, stabilizing in New York after Monday’s slide as investors balanced safe-haven demand tied to the Iran conflict against nerves before the Fed’s Wednesday call. Spot prices barely budged at $5,004.71 an ounce by midafternoon, with April futures closing at $5,008.20. Silver retreated 1.5%. Platinum and palladium climbed.
Gold’s behavior is shifting—no longer just a crisis play, but acting more like an asset keyed to rates. Brent crude climbed 1.52% to $101.73 a barrel on Tuesday. Markets pared back bets on U.S. rate cuts, pricing in only about 27 basis points of easing by year-end, down from over 50 basis points just days ago, with the oil spike clouding the Fed’s path.
Monday’s action made the pressure obvious. Spot gold dropped 0.5% to $4,993.42, hitting its lowest level since Feb. 19 after traders honed in on the risk that pricier oil keeps inflation stubborn and rates pinned higher. “With higher oil prices comes higher inflation,” RJO Futures’ Bob Haberkorn said, adding central banks would be less eager to cut. Reuters
The mood stabilized on Tuesday, though nerves lingered. Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals, described it as “a balancing act”—safe-haven buyers on one side, inflation worries on the other. He doesn’t see new record highs in the cards just yet, warning “the bulls have just run out of gas” and any fresh peaks “may come later, but not be anytime soon.” Reuters
Rhona O’Connell, head of market analysis at StoneX, said Monday that gold was “effectively marking time” throughout February and March, holding mostly in the $4,900 to $5,400 an ounce range. She sees bullion needing “a breather” unless there’s another escalation in the Gulf conflict. StoneX
There’s a risk here: investors are still pulling cash out. According to BullionVault on Tuesday, the SPDR Gold Trust just dropped to its lowest point in nearly nine weeks. The iShares Gold Trust? That one’s at its smallest since early December. Comex gold futures trading volume has slipped about 25% below pre-war levels—so, even with gold prices staying high, conviction has clearly faded.
Still, long-term backing remains solid. According to the World Gold Council, inflows to global physically backed gold ETFs continued for a ninth consecutive month in February, tacking on another $5.3 billion. Total holdings climbed to a record 4,171 tonnes, fueled largely by geopolitical concerns and changing macro trends.
That’s part of the reason analysts haven’t turned their backs on gold, despite its recent stumble. Back in February, a Reuters poll pegged the average 2026 price at $4,746.50 an ounce—an all-time high for the survey. Geopolitical strains and continued central-bank demand were cited as the main drivers. Gold reached record levels in late January before pulling back.
Gold was steady near $5,005 late in New York trading, with silver not far from $79.57, according to Kitco’s spot prices. Market participants are sticking to their current positions, eyeing the Fed’s upcoming decision on whether surging oil and rising inflation will shift bullion’s direction.
