Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) heads into the Friday, Dec. 26, 2025 U.S. market open with investors balancing two powerful forces: policy-driven price pressure on GLP‑1 drugs and pipeline-driven growth potential that keeps Lilly at the center of the obesity and diabetes mega-trend.
Because Christmas Day (Dec. 25) is a market holiday and Christmas Eve (Dec. 24) was an early close, the next “real” price discovery for LLY happens when trading resumes Friday morning—often with thinner holiday-week liquidity that can exaggerate moves. [1]
Below is what matters most—the latest headlines, what Wall Street is forecasting, and the key risks and catalysts that could shape LLY’s next move.
Where Eli Lilly stock left off heading into Friday’s session
LLY last traded during the holiday-shortened Dec. 24 session, with the stock around $1,076.98 at the close (1:00 p.m. ET) and roughly $1,077.97 after-hours (5:00 p.m. ET), according to market data compiled by StockAnalysis. [2]
The “why it matters” for Friday: holiday reopenings can bring gap moves if any major policy, regulatory, or competitive news hits while the market is closed—especially in a stock as widely owned and headline-sensitive as Lilly.
The 5 biggest storylines moving LLY right now
1) Washington is pushing GLP‑1 prices down—while trying to expand coverage
In late December, Reuters reported that the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) unveiled a new voluntary coverage model aimed at expanding access to GLP‑1 drugs for weight loss and diabetes under Medicaid and Medicare Part D, building on a pricing deal involving Lilly and Novo Nordisk. The plan includes standardized coverage terms and set pricing, with eligible Medicare beneficiaries paying $50 per month for drugs such as Wegovy and Zepbound. [3]
Timing matters for long-term valuation models: Reuters’ reporting says the program would launch for Medicaid in May 2026 and Medicare in January 2027, with an interim Medicare GLP‑1 demonstration slated to begin July 2026. [4]
Stock takeaway: policy may compress net pricing, but it can also expand the addressable market through coverage and volume.
2) The TrumpRx / “most-favored-nation” pricing push is a new overhang—and a new volume opportunity
A White House fact sheet in November described a “most-favored-nation” pricing approach tied to the TrumpRx initiative, including the claim that the price of Zepbound and orforglipron (if approved) would fall to an average of $346 when purchased through TrumpRx, and that Medicare prices of drugs including Mounjaro and Zepbound would be $245, with Medicare beneficiaries paying a $50/month co-pay. [5]
Reuters also reported on the broader pricing/coverage dynamic, including that Lilly CEO David Ricks said the company expected approval of orforglipron in the first quarter of next year, and outlined pricing levels tied to government programs. [6]
Stock takeaway: the market is trying to handicap the net effect of lower prices vs higher covered demand. In the near term, headlines can move the stock even when the financial impact is years out.
3) Novo Nordisk just won FDA approval for a weight-loss pill—raising the “oral obesity” stakes
A major competitive development landed this week: Reuters reported the FDA approved Novo Nordisk’s oral weight-loss pill (an oral semaglutide product under the Wegovy brand), describing trial results with average weight loss of 16.6% over 64 weeks and noting that analysts expect oral weight-loss pills to become a meaningful slice of the market over time. [7]
The Associated Press similarly highlighted the approval as the first daily oral Wegovy option, describing expected improvements in convenience and access, while framing it as a competitive pressure point for Lilly’s own oral contender. [8]
Stock takeaway: even though Lilly currently dominates with injectables, the market is increasingly valuing the endgame—oral GLP‑1 (and next-gen) platforms that can scale manufacturing and broaden adoption.
4) Lilly’s own oral GLP‑1 contender (orforglipron) just posted “maintenance” data—an important differentiation angle
Reuters reported that Lilly said its oral pill orforglipron helped maintain weight loss in patients who switched from injectable GLP‑1 drugs. In the trial described by Reuters, patients took orforglipron for 52 weeks after an initial 72 weeks on Wegovy or Zepbound, with the story citing weight-maintenance differences versus placebo. [9]
On Lilly’s own explainer page, the company emphasizes that orforglipron is investigational, is designed as a once-daily oral GLP‑1, and in trials was taken without food or water restrictions (a convenience detail investors often compare to oral semaglutide regimens). [10]
Stock takeaway: with Novo’s pill now approved, investor focus shifts to Lilly’s timeline, the FDA review path, and whether Lilly can position orforglipron as “easier to live with” in real-world use.
5) Retatrutide: Lilly’s next-generation “triple agonist” narrative keeps getting stronger—along with new safety questions
On Dec. 11, Lilly released Phase 3 topline results for retatrutide (a GIP/GLP‑1/glucagon triple agonist) in TRIUMPH‑4, a study in adults with obesity/overweight and knee osteoarthritis. Lilly reported that participants on retatrutide 12 mg lost 28.7% of body weight at 68 weeks (an average 71.2 lbs) and saw large improvements in knee pain measures, while also disclosing gastrointestinal side effects and reporting dysesthesia at higher rates than placebo. [11]
The same release said seven additional Phase 3 trials evaluating retatrutide are expected to complete in 2026—meaning the news flow cadence could remain dense well beyond this quarter. [12]
Stock takeaway: retatrutide is a classic “bigger prize, bigger scrutiny” asset: blockbuster potential, but investors will watch tolerability and discontinuation dynamics closely.
Pricing actions in the real world: Zepbound’s U.S. cuts, Canada cuts, and global expansion
U.S. self-pay cuts for Zepbound vials
Reuters reported that on Dec. 1 Lilly lowered the cash price of Zepbound single-dose vials under its self-pay program: $299/month for the 2.5 mg starter dose (down from $349), $399 for 5 mg (down from $499), and $449 for higher doses (down from $499). [13]
This is important for Friday’s “stock setup” because it reinforces a theme that’s likely to persist into 2026: price will be used strategically to expand access, protect share, and pre-empt policy shocks.
Canada list-price cuts beginning Dec. 29
Reuters also reported (citing the Globe and Mail) that Lilly is slashing list prices in Canada by 20% or more for Mounjaro and Zepbound, with a four-week supply reportedly lowered to C$300 for 2.5 mg and 5 mg and C$420 for 7.5 mg and 10 mg, effective Dec. 29. [14]
India obesity market “land grab”
In another Reuters dispatch, Lilly and Novo were described as battling for share in India’s obesity market ahead of cheaper generics for semaglutide expected in March 2026 after patent expiry. Reuters reported that Mounjaro (approved for diabetes and weight loss in India) became the top-selling therapy by value in October after a March launch, and that Lilly has partnered with local players (including Cipla) and is investing more than $1 billion to expand contract manufacturing in India. [15]
Stock takeaway: Lilly is fighting on three fronts at once—pricing, capacity, and distribution reach—and investors will keep modeling whether that mix supports durable growth or squeezes margins.
Financial reality check: what Lilly last guided—and what drove it
In its third-quarter 2025 report, Lilly said Q3 revenue rose 54% to $17.60 billion, driven by volume growth from Mounjaro and Zepbound, and reported EPS of $6.21 (non‑GAAP $7.02). [16]
Lilly also raised 2025 guidance, with full-year revenue expected at $63.0 billion to $63.5 billion, reported EPS $21.80 to $22.50, and non‑GAAP EPS $23.00 to $23.70. [17]
The same update emphasized manufacturing expansion—citing new facilities in Virginia and Texas and expansion in Puerto Rico—which matters because capacity is a core constraint in incretin-era pharma. [18]
Wall Street forecasts: price targets, ratings, and growth expectations
No single analyst estimate should be treated as “truth,” but consensus snapshots help explain what the market may already be discounting.
Price targets and consensus stance
StockAnalysis’ compiled analyst view lists a consensus rating of “Strong Buy” with an average price target around $1,084 (with targets spanning roughly $700 to $1,500). [19]
Investing.com’s consensus page similarly describes a “Buy” consensus, with an average 12‑month price target around 1,093 and a wide high/low range (roughly 770 to 1,500). [20]
How to read this into Friday: when a mega-cap stock is already trading near consensus targets, the market tends to demand fresh catalysts (new trial readouts, new approvals, or clearer policy economics) to justify another leg higher.
Revenue and EPS trajectory implied by consensus models
StockAnalysis’ model summary shows forecasts that imply continued rapid expansion (and it notes forecast EPS may be non‑GAAP). For example, it lists revenue estimates of about $64.23B for FY2025 and $76.83B for FY2026, and EPS estimates of about 24.04 (FY2025) and 32.53 (FY2026). [21]
It also shows a forward P/E snapshot (contextual valuation anchor) and highlights that estimates are based on multiple analysts. [22]
What this means: LLY’s valuation is effectively a bet that Lilly can (1) keep demand strong, (2) scale supply, and (3) navigate the policy/price transition without breaking the growth curve.
Near-term calendar: the next spotlight moment investors will watch
Lilly said it would participate in the 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, with CEO David A. Ricks scheduled for a fireside chat on Tuesday, Jan. 13 at 5:15 p.m. ET, according to a Dec. 16 PRNewswire release. [23]
Even if no major new data drops, JPM week often becomes a narrative catalyst for large-cap pharma—especially when the market is debating policy and pricing.
Risks that can move LLY quickly (even without earnings)
These are the pressure points most likely to show up in headlines—and therefore in premarket pricing:
- Policy implementation risk: details matter. Coverage expansions can be bullish, but “net price” resets can be bearish if investors model a sharper margin step-down than expected. [24]
- Oral obesity competition: Novo’s newly approved Wegovy pill changes expectations for adoption, pricing, and market share in 2026+. [25]
- Safety/tolerability scrutiny: retatrutide’s efficacy headlines are huge—but adverse event profiles (including the dysesthesia disclosure) can influence the risk-adjusted valuation. [26]
- Pricing actions becoming a trend: repeated “access” price cuts can broaden volume, but they also train the market to expect more price moves. [27]
- Holiday liquidity and volatility: the first full session after Christmas can produce outsized moves from smaller order flow.
What to watch specifically before the Friday, Dec. 26 open
If you follow LLY into the open, these are the highest-signal items to scan in premarket headlines:
- Any new details on the CMS GLP‑1 model (eligible populations, manufacturer participation, plan design) beyond the first announcement. [28]
- TrumpRx / MFN pricing follow-ups—especially anything that clarifies timing, distribution mechanics, and whether the discounts meaningfully touch insured patients vs primarily cash-pay channels. [29]
- Oral GLP‑1 competitive messaging: Novo’s pill approval is fresh; watch for analyst notes comparing dosing convenience, supply scaling, and real-world adherence. [30]
- Pipeline narrative momentum: any incremental color on retatrutide’s Phase 3 program timeline or safety interpretation. [31]
- Price/access headlines (U.S. self-pay channels, Canadian changes, payer coverage updates). [32]
Bottom line for Dec. 26: a “policy vs pipeline” tug-of-war
Going into Friday’s open, LLY remains a stock where headline risk is real—but so is the strategic advantage of a company that sits at the intersection of (a) the world’s most commercially important drug class and (b) the next wave of obesity and cardiometabolic innovation.
The market’s short-term question is straightforward: Do the newest policy moves and competitive developments change the earnings power investors already assume? The long-term question is bigger: Can Lilly defend its leadership as obesity treatment shifts toward broader coverage and more oral options?
This article is informational and not investment advice.
References
1. www.nyse.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.whitehouse.gov, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. apnews.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.lilly.com, 11. www.prnewswire.com, 12. www.prnewswire.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.prnewswire.com, 17. www.prnewswire.com, 18. www.prnewswire.com, 19. stockanalysis.com, 20. www.investing.com, 21. stockanalysis.com, 22. stockanalysis.com, 23. www.prnewswire.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.prnewswire.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.prnewswire.com, 32. www.reuters.com
