New York — As of 7:56 p.m. ET on Friday, December 26, 2025, Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) is coming off a session that left the stock hovering around $1,077.75, essentially flat on the day after a narrow trading range.
With U.S. markets now shut for the weekend, the next major read for investors will come when trading resumes Monday—against a backdrop of fast-moving headlines in obesity drugs, shifting reimbursement and pricing policy, and fresh late‑stage pipeline data that continues to redefine what “best‑in‑class” can mean in metabolic medicine.
LLY stock check: where Eli Lilly finished Friday and what the tape was saying
On Friday’s regular session, LLY last traded near $1,077.75 (intraday high ~$1,080.50, low ~$1,068.43).
The broader market backdrop into the close looked muted: the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Invesco QQQ (QQQ) were both fractionally lower, while healthcare (as proxied by XLV) edged slightly higher and biotech (XBI) was weaker.
That split matters for Eli Lilly shareholders because, at these levels, LLY increasingly trades like a “mega-cap growth + policy” hybrid: growth narratives (GLP‑1 demand and next‑gen obesity drugs) can drive upside, but headlines on pricing, coverage, and access can quickly compress sentiment.
The biggest headline risk right now: pricing and coverage pressure is turning into policy
Eli Lilly’s GLP‑1 franchise—anchored by Mounjaro (diabetes) and Zepbound (obesity)—remains the company’s core market-moving engine, but policy is rapidly becoming a parallel driver of valuation.
CMS “BALANCE” initiative: lower out-of-pocket costs, standardized terms, and a longer runway
This week, the U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) unveiled a voluntary coverage model designed to expand access to GLP‑1 drugs through Medicaid and Medicare Part D plans. Under the plan described by Reuters, eligible Medicare beneficiaries would pay $50 per month for GLP‑1 drugs including Wegovy and Zepbound, with the rollout timing extending into 2026–2027. [1]
CMS administrator Mehmet Oz framed the initiative as increasing access to select GLP‑1s while pairing medication with lifestyle support, according to Reuters’ coverage of the announcement. [2]
For LLY stock, the key investor question isn’t whether demand exists—it does—but how the demand is monetized as governments and large payers push for clearer pricing constructs at scale.
The Trump administration GLP‑1 price deal: a policy anchor investors can’t ignore
Reuters has also reported on a pricing deal announced in November involving President Donald Trump, Eli Lilly, and Novo Nordisk that would lower prices for government programs and cash payers, including reference points such as $149 per month for “starter doses” of weight-loss pills (if approved) and $245 per month for injectables for Medicare and Medicaid. [3]
This type of policy framework can cut both ways for Lilly investors:
- Positive: lower out-of-pocket costs can expand the addressable market and reduce abandonment.
- Negative: it can cap price realization over time and reset investor expectations for GLP‑1 margins.
Canada price cuts: a real-world signal on international pricing dynamics
Adding to the “price narrative,” Reuters reported that Lilly is cutting Canadian list prices for Mounjaro and Zepbound by 20% or more, with a reported new list price of 300 Canadian dollars for certain lower doses (2.5 mg and 5 mg) for a four‑week supply. [4]
Investors will watch whether this reflects localized competitive positioning—or the early shape of a broader strategy as GLP‑1s move from novelty to a mass, policy-driven category.
Growth engine check: Zepbound + Mounjaro demand remains the centerpiece
While pricing pressure dominates headlines, the underlying operating story for Lilly has continued to show scale.
In Reuters’ coverage of Lilly’s recent “beat-and-raise” quarter, CEO Dave Ricks credited sustained demand for GLP‑1 medicines, and the report highlighted:
- Zepbound quarterly sales of $3.6 billion, beating expectations cited by Reuters
- Lilly stating that by the end of the third quarter, Zepbound held 71% of new U.S. prescriptions
- Mounjaro sales of $6.5 billion for the quarter, also above expectations cited by Reuters [5]
Reuters also reported Lilly lifting full‑year guidance to adjusted EPS of $23.00–$23.70 and revenue of $63.0–$63.5 billion (vs. prior ranges), underscoring how quickly the GLP‑1 franchise has become a cash‑flow engine. [6]
From a market perspective, this is why LLY often resists broader “risk-off” moves: investors have treated the company as one of the clearest large-cap earnings compounding stories in pharma, even as policy risks rise.
The obesity pill race just escalated: Novo’s FDA-approved Wegovy pill changes the near-term narrative
A major competitive headline landed this week: the FDA approved Novo Nordisk’s oral version of Wegovy for weight loss—an important milestone because oral delivery can materially expand adoption among patients who don’t want injections.
Reuters described the approval as a first oral chronic weight-management option and highlighted trial weight loss outcomes; the Associated Press and other outlets framed it as a step-change in convenience and access. [7]
Why this matters for Eli Lilly stock:
- Category expansion: If pills broaden the market, that can be structurally bullish for the whole obesity-drug complex.
- Competitive timing: It forces investors to focus on when Lilly’s pill arrives, and under what label/clinical profile.
Lilly’s orforglipron: clinical updates + a potentially faster FDA clock
Lilly’s leading oral contender is orforglipron. Reuters reported in mid‑December that Lilly said its oral pill helped maintain weight loss for patients switching from injectable GLP‑1 drugs (including Zepbound and Novo’s Wegovy), with Reuters citing details on weight maintenance outcomes after switching. [8]
That same Reuters report quoted BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan Seigerman, who emphasized the importance of convenience and differentiated profile as investors weigh Novo’s timeline advantage. [9]
Separately, Reuters published an exclusive noting internal FDA discussions about accelerating certain review steps, and said a new timeline (if adopted) could allow an FDA decision on Lilly’s pill as early as March 28 instead of a later deadline reported by Reuters. [10]
For LLY investors heading into the next session, the “pill narrative” is no longer abstract:
- Novo’s oral Wegovy is approved and moving toward launch.
- Lilly’s orforglipron timeline is being actively debated in the regulatory and market sphere.
Retatrutide: Lilly’s next-gen obesity pipeline just posted headline Phase 3 numbers
If the obesity pill race is about convenience, Lilly’s next wave is also about magnitude.
In mid‑December, Reuters reported that Lilly’s next‑generation obesity drug retatrutide helped patients lose an average of 28.7% of their weight in a late‑stage trial, outperforming Lilly’s own Zepbound in that context and reinforcing Lilly’s leadership narrative in next‑gen metabolic science. [11]
Lilly’s own TRIUMPH‑4 topline release emphasized that participants taking the highest dose lost an average of 28.7% body weight at 68 weeks, along with meaningful osteoarthritis-related pain relief. [12]
What investors liked—and what they’ll scrutinize next
Reuters quoted BMO’s Evan Seigerman calling the result the “highest weight loss to date,” and noted investors may have been surprised by the magnitude. [13]
But the market will also weigh:
- Discontinuation rates and why patients left the study (Reuters said some departures were tied to perceived excessive weight loss and reported discontinuation comparisons vs placebo). [14]
- Side-effect profile, including skin-related signals mentioned in Reuters’ summary. [15]
In other words, retatrutide strengthens Lilly’s “pipeline premium,” but investors will still demand clarity on tolerability, adherence, and real-world persistence—especially as obesity drugs move into broader, longer-duration use.
International growth: India is becoming a new obesity-drug battleground
While the U.S. remains the largest profit pool, global expansion can increasingly influence long-run narratives—especially as policy pushes shape access.
Reuters reported this week that Lilly and Novo are locking horns in India’s fast-growing obesity drug market, with Lilly’s Mounjaro gaining early sales momentum after its March launch and Novo responding through pricing and product rollout strategy. The report included an estimate (from Shrikant Akolkar, vice president at Nuvama Institutional Equities) that the Indian market could exceed $1 billion within two years, and cited local market sizing data via Pharmarack. [16]
For LLY stock, India illustrates a broader point: the obesity category is globalizing fast, and pricing elasticity + distribution scale will matter more as the market moves beyond early adopters.
A key “defensive” tailwind: regulatory moves limiting compounded competition
One underappreciated element of Lilly’s GLP‑1 story is the tug‑of‑war over compounding (non-branded copies) when products are deemed in shortage.
Reuters reported earlier in 2025 that a U.S. judge sided with the FDA’s removal of Lilly’s drugs from the shortage list, a decision that Lilly said supported its view that continued sales of mass compounded versions would be unlawful. Reuters also included remarks from the Outsourcing Facilities Association criticizing how shortage determinations were made. [17]
Investors typically view this as supportive for branded manufacturers—though public-policy and patient-access debates remain part of the backdrop.
Beyond GLP‑1: why Kisunla and “the rest of Lilly” still matters for valuation
Even with GLP‑1s dominating headlines, investors tracking LLY’s long-term multiple often ask whether the company can keep broadening its growth base.
A Nasdaq analysis in late 2025 highlighted revenue contributions from newer launches beyond GLP‑1s—citing nine‑month 2025 contributions for products including Omvoh, Ebglyss, Kisunla, and Jaypirca, and pointing to ongoing efforts to expand indications and geographies. [18]
On Alzheimer’s, PharmaVoice reported that Kisunla sales increased to $70 million in Q3 versus $48.6 million in Q2, and quoted clinicians on rising provider comfort as protocols mature. [19]
This matters for the stock because, in a world where GLP‑1 pricing policy is tightening, diversification helps defend the earnings story and can reduce reliance on a single category’s margin structure.
Analyst forecasts: where price targets cluster heading into 2026
Wall Street targets vary widely, but multiple aggregators show a cluster that implies modest upside from current levels—while still reflecting uncertainty around pricing policy and competition.
- TipRanks shows an average price target around $1,152 with a cited range from $950 to $1,500. [20]
- TradingView lists an analyst target around $1,165.75 with a cited range from $950 to $1,600. [21]
Investors should treat these as directional consensus snapshots (not guarantees), but the takeaway is clear: at ~$1,078, the market appears to be pricing Lilly as a leader with continued upside, yet one that must navigate policy-driven price ceilings and intensifying competition.
What investors should know before the next session
With the regular U.S. stock market closed now and the next full session ahead, here are the most important catalysts and “watch items” that could influence LLY when trading resumes:
- Policy headlines can move the stock fast. Any follow-through reporting on CMS’s BALANCE framework—or political commentary tied to GLP‑1 pricing—can swing sentiment because it directly affects long-term pricing power. [22]
- Oral obesity drug news is now a live competitive front. Novo’s FDA-approved Wegovy pill and its rollout timeline raises the urgency for clarity on Lilly’s orforglipron review path and approval timing. [23]
- Retatrutide is a valuation lever—if safety and persistence hold up. Investors will continue parsing discontinuation and side-effect details even after blockbuster topline weight-loss numbers. [24]
- International expansion is increasingly part of the equity story. India’s rapid market growth and competitive dynamics could affect long-range expectations around volume and pricing strategy outside the U.S. [25]
- Know the next major calendar marker. Lilly’s investor site lists a Q4 2025 earnings call on February 4, 2026 (10:00 a.m. EST)—a key date for updated guidance, pipeline timelines, and payer commentary. [26]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. investor.lilly.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.nasdaq.com, 19. www.pharmavoice.com, 20. www.tipranks.com, 21. www.tradingview.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. investor.lilly.com
