New York, February 2, 2026, 11:29 EST — Regular session
- Shares of Eli Lilly climbed back after an initial drop, with investors gearing up for earnings later this week.
- With U.S. prices falling and competition heating up, analysts are revising their long-term forecasts for obesity drugs.
- Attention shifts to guidance on pricing, demand, and the pipeline driving the next growth phase.
Shares of Eli Lilly and Company climbed roughly 1.5% on Monday, closing near $1,052.70, after fluctuating between $1,035.28 and $1,056.51 during the session.
This move is significant since the stock now serves as a stand-in for the weight-loss sector, which is undergoing change. Investors are watching closely to see if falling prices attract enough new patients to balance out the decline in revenue per prescription.
This week is all about the numbers. Lilly’s quarterly report drops Wednesday, with the Q&A likely zeroing in on obesity drug pricing, cash-pay demand, and the outlook for 2026.
Lilly announced it will release its fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 4, followed by a conference call at 10 a.m. Eastern. (BioSpace)
A Reuters analysis on Monday revealed that projections for GLP-1 drugs—medications that mimic a gut hormone to suppress appetite—are being slashed. Many 2030 estimates now sit about 30% lower, around $100 billion, due to falling prices and growing competition in the cash-pay market, where patients shoulder costs themselves. Initially priced near $1,000 a month in pharmacies, Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Lilly’s Zepbound are now available online for $149 to $299, partly because of a deal with the Trump administration. Jefferies analyst Michael Leuchten commented, “That $150 billion pie is gone,” while Bellevue Asset Management’s Terence McManus added, “The peak has come down a little bit.” (Reuters)
Shares of rival Novo Nordisk, listed in the U.S., dropped roughly 0.8% by late morning.
For Lilly, the key question is clear: will volume growth outpace the squeeze on prices? Investors are also curious if management plans to boost access without sacrificing too much on net pricing. Another focus will be how fast the company believes its pills can grow the market rather than just cannibalizing existing share.
The downside scenario is gaining traction. Should prescription growth falter, expected future discounts might arrive earlier than anticipated, while new oral competitors could pressure prices further.
Beyond earnings, a key trigger looms: the U.S. Food and Drug Administration aims to decide on Lilly’s weight-loss pill by April 10. This is part of the agency’s fast-track voucher program, according to internal documents detailed by Reuters. (Reuters)
Next up: Wednesday’s earnings and guidance. Traders will be digging for clues on how Lilly intends to handle the impact of lower-priced obesity drugs while pushing for growth.
